Trade Talk and Break Evens: Round 2

Updated: Apr 14

Probably the most exciting part about AFL Fantasy is that when that lockout lifts you're then granted the power to fuck off any bloke who made your weekend miserable. Having been only round 1 I hope this isn't the case for many of you guys but there are certainly some forced trades for a lot of coaches this week (Rowell and Danger). With early trades being super important in getting your team in shape to upgrade later in the year, It's important not to waste your trades early.

The premise of using trades early should be fix up your side. Meaning, jump on any guys you missed whether that be mid price/rookies. It's important to get on these guys as early as possible as they'll be the guys that make you the most money early and allow you to achieve the upgrades you want to make in a few weeks time.

What should certainly be avoided is sideways trading your premium players. You have to realise that they are a premium for a reason and that they will come good at some stage. It's unfortunate that you may have copped a low score to start with but trading these blokes to other premiums isn't going to progress your team forward in the future. There may be an exception to this rule that I'll get into later.

Lowest Break Evens

As you can see these are the lowest break evens going into round 2. The guys are known as "cash cows" and are going to be the lower priced players that make you a stack of money early. As you can see I already own a majority of them. These guys should be a priority for you to trade in early.

Most important Cash cows to target include:

Matt Flynn ($219k RUC)

Errol Gulden ($259k MID)

James Jordon ($207k MID)

James Rowe ($233k FWD)

Tom Powell ($269k MID)

These 5 guys mentioned above look to be the best cash generators early and therefore if you don't have any of these guys you should be making that a priority with your trades this week. If you have forced trades in Danger and Rowell it may not be viable to go all the way to a rookie but I think it is an option as you'll just have to pay a premium to get them next week.

Mid-Price Trade Targets

Aside from the rookies, these guys are vital in taking your team to the next level. Identifying the mid-price players who look to make money and take a step forward will allow you to score decent points while generating cash. Nailing these correctly can even result in finding a season keeper at a super low price. Outside of rookies these are the guys you want to chase this week.

These are the guys I would target if you do not have them:

1) Nick Hind ($438k FWD) BE 29

2) Oleg Markov ($408k DEF) 16

3) Jaidyn Stephenson ($512k FWD) BE 25

4) Jye Caldwell ($526k MID/FWD) BE 48

5) Lachlan Sholl ($470k MID/DEF) BE 36

6) Isaac Cumming ($375k DEF) BE 31

The order in which they are listed is the order in which I rate them as options.

What to do with Rowell and Danger

Rowell and Danger are two players with super high ownership. Fortunately for myself I am lucky enough to not own either but for those that do there is no need to worry. Most of the competition who plays Fantasy seriously own these guys and therefore you're not really behind the 8 ball. What I suggest with these guys is trading to the guys mentioned above. If you've missed a Gulden or Jordon then I would target one of those 2. If not I would target the mid-price options named above. These trades should leave you with a bit of coin left over and while your team won't look as strong this week you'll make the most cash that way and therefore put your team in a better position going forward. With the cash next week you can turn a dud rookie into another mid-price cash generator and get one less rookie out of your side. There is no need to worry about giving up slight points at the start of the year. If you pick the right mid-price guys they may score close to some of the expensive players and you'll be in a super position to make those points back around the round 6 mark. AFL Fantasy is a long game and you have to think long term when making decisions.

Highest Break Evens

Conversely to the lowest break evens, you can see that I do not own any of these guys. If you followed some of my tips and advice in the pre-season the likelihood that you also own these guys is slim. The reason why I don't like starting with top price premium players is this exact reason. When you commit to start with these guys you're essentially making a season commitment to them as it would be a waste to use trades on your premium players as mentioned earlier. The problem here is that if a player was to have poor game early it sky rockets their breakeven and therefore sets them up for a big cash drop. This then puts all non owners at an advantage as they are then able to get on board at a cheaper price. For the owners of these guys I think you have to hold. While it sucks knowing others will get them cheaper they are still top players and will bounce back over the course of the year.

Having identified early that rucks would score poorly this year I opted to go against Gawn/Grundy/O'brien which so far has payed off. My goal from the start was to wait for these guys to drop as I expected lower scoring and then get on cheaper. If you own Gawn or Grundy I think you also hold. While they will drop a stack in value they will still be the number 1 and 2 ruck at the end of the year even if that average comes down a notch. When comparing to the top 100 teams in Fantasy almost all of them have neither of these guys and or just 1 with Flynn on the field. This can be an advantage in your favour if something was to happen to Flynn or if he was to score poorly (Both outcomes are very possible). You started with these guys as set and forget and therefore I think you stick it out and try generate money elsewhere to better the rest of your side. If you decide to trade your essentially committing to another trade later in the year to get them back. This defeats the premise of starting with them in the first place not having to use ruck trades throughout the year. The other thing is that rucks as a whole look to be down so there aren't really any genuine options I would feel confident in moving them to. There are so many good options in other zones that I think you chase those and give these blokes another chance. With another week of data you can make a more educated call next week.

Players to Hold

These are some guys I think should bounce back and therefore if you have bigger issues there is no harm in keeping these guys.

Jordan De Goey: Jordan was super disappointing against the Dogs last week. While he didn't spend as much time in the middle as I would have liked to see (33% CBA's) his role was still good and his score was a reflection of a poor team performance. The Dogs won the disposal count by 150 which made it hard for the Pies to even get there hands on the footy. The Dogs completely dominated this game and therefore De Goey wasn't given much opportunity when he was forward. He also kicked 3 behinds which could have easily been goals and turned his score around. This week against Carlton, Collingwood should perform better and therefore we should see De Goey bounce back and score around the 90 mark. Steele Sidebottom looks to come back which could affect his midfield role slightly but I do think that Collingwood genuinely want to use De Goey more in the middle this year. He also plays on the Thursday night which can be risky burning a trade this early without knowledge of teams later in the weekend. If you use a trade here you'll then lose the opportunity to deal with carnage if others aren't to be named later on. Just something to consider.

Jordan Clark: I don't think anyone was expecting that sort of footy from the Crows. Adelaide piled the pressure on early laying gang tackles and putting the cats under the pump early. As a result Geelong weren't afforded any time or space and therefore weren't able to get much outside ball/cheap possessions. As a wingman this is what Clark thrives on and if we take a look at others such as Tom Stewart, he also had a poor game (79) as he wasn't able to get the cheap ones he usually gets. Geelong will bounce back this week and we've seen the potential Clark has with his 135 from 66% in the AAMI. I think you give him another chance.

My Current Trades

These may not be the trades I go with but they are what I have for now. Not having Rowell or Danger and having all the big cash cows mean I have a fair bit of freedom potentially. Hence why I have decided to trade De Goey despite me thinking he will come good. My logic here is that with a break even of 99 he's not going to generate any cash for a couple of weeks where as Caldwell may score similar points wise and make me $50k in that time frame. I wouldn't mind holding Atkins but once again I don't want to miss the cash rise on Stephenson and he's the only option I'm content with giving up to get there.

The issue with these trades is that both my trades will be locked out on Thursday and Friday night meaning I'll have no idea of the Sunday teams and therefore may be subject to some carnage. Being this early in the season there shouldn't be many surprises and therefore I'm content rolling with it and if worse comes to worse I have some solid bench cover in all zones.

With Matt Flynn coming off with the ankle concern last weekend, the fact he went back on is good signs but I'm still wary he may not play this weekend. Fortunately, I'll know if Hunter (St Kilda ruck) is playing on the Friday before the Geelong game. If Hunter is playing then I'll probably risk it as I'll have definite cover if Flynn wasn't to pull up. If he isn't named I may be forced to do a last minute trade adjustment to avoid a potential doughnut.

There you have it guys! That's my round 1 trade talk. I hope for your sake that you don't have to much carnage to deal with early on. As always I appreciate your time to read this and if you have any questions regarding your trades be sure to drop them below in the comments. Good luck this week homies.

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