Trade Talk and Break Evens: Round 8

What seems like the first week for most where there aren't any forced trades to deal with. While there were plenty of poor scorers this week no big injuries is the huge one for fantasy coaches. The poor rookie scores is just confirmation that your goal at this stage should be to downgrade one and upgrade one in order to remove these players from the field. As I've preached up until this point underpriced premiums and cash generation is where the focus should be, the time will come to upgrade to these big dog players ($800k+) but that time isn't now.


Along with value hunting, the byes are fast approaching and therefore should be something you consider strongly when deciding on which guys you elect to trade in from this point forward.


Rookies to Target



1) Riley Collier-Dawkins ($193k MID BE -1)


Riley was fantastic on debut and comes with the ability to lay high volumes of tackles. This is super important, in particular with rookies as it gives them that base line of points. Riley attended 68% of center bounces (Most for Tiges excluding Nank). This is a huge tick in role and with Cotchin now injured for at least a few weeks you would think RCD's role is safe in the side. I'd expect scores of 60+ and therefore he's one you can field with confidence. These are the types of rookies you look for and he's the number 1 target this week.


2) Martin Frederick ($241k DEF BE -12)


Looks to have a great role at half back for Power and brings a unique look to the side. I think his job security is quite strong personally and with a -12 BE looks to make some cash. If you like him I'd be targeting him ahead of RCD as next week RCD will still be cheap enough to get on board. If you're considering a double downgrade these are the two clear cut guys to jump on board.


3) Nick Bryan ($195k RUC BE -4)


Absolute fantastic debut from the big man and looks to be a player for the future. Phillips looks like he'll be ready to return this week but I'll be surprised if he comes back into the side. Bryan was good enough to hold his spot but with Mumford most likely his match up this week he has his work cut out. I think from the point forward Bryan will play the same amount of games as what Flynn does and therefore if you're looking to offload Flynn this week Bryan is a logical trade target (only if Flynn is R3).


4) Matthew Owies ($193k FWD BE -1)


If you're looking for a forward downgrade this is the man for you. Owies brought a lot to like on debut, he fills a role and therefore I can see his JS being quite strong. I expect him to hold a spot for at least another month and while the scoring won't be strong (bench option only) he'll provide decent cover consistently.


5) Ryan Byrnes ($200k MID BE -9)


Looked decent on debut and put up a great score of 75 (for a rook). My issue here is that Saints aren't great and have continued to chop and change their squad week in week out. Coming off a win I expect him to hold his spot this week but for how long I'm not sure. With bench cover increasingly important going into the byes this is one that I wouldn't be jumping on board.


6) Harry Edwards ($194k DEF BE -2)


Injuries to McGovern and Barrass have gifted Edwards an opportunity. With these guys due to come back in the short term I can't see Edwards holding his spot and he's not going to generate enough cash in 2 weeks to be worth the pick. I'd be staying away.


With plenty of decent rookie options available I can see many going with a double downgrade this week. I think this approach is fine if you have a player you are looking to target next week and you can't get there by doing the 1 downgrade this week. On the flip side, there are plenty of value premium options worth chasing this week so I personally will be looking to do a downgrade/upgrade and get a rookie off the field. These are the guys worth looking at as trade options.



Under-priced Options to Consider



Aaron Hall ($575k DEF/FWD BE 38)


Hall is the number 1 trade target for me this week. He ticks so many boxes that I believe he's almost a must have this week and the main reason I don't think the double downgrade is a play this week despite the rookie options we have available. North are playing keep offs in the back half and as a result Hall will continue to rack up. Think of Hall as a cheap Ziebell and while I wasn't keen on Ziebell last week (due to price) Hall comes in 250k cheaper and you're effectively getting a player with a similar output. Priced at 81, he's shown he's got the huge ceiling and excluding his concussion effected scores he's averaging 121. If I haven't sold you yet he also has DEF/FWD dual position which adds extra value. The only downside is he has a Rd 12 bye which many are trying to avoid. Regardless of your bye structure I'd be trying to fit Hall in. Too much value here to ignore and I believe it's a smash play.


Josh Daicos ($522k MID/FWD BE 58)


Prior to the last 2 weeks Daicos had spent a lot of time forward which saw him get off to a poor start. Coming into the season it was expected Daicos would break out and potentially reach that 100 average. He has the talent and as of the last 2 weeks he has the role. He's back inside playing midfield and last week attended the most center bounces out of the midfield group. Bucks is happy with him in this role and while the Magpies will continue to experiment now their season is over, I think Daicos should continue to see a high volume of midfield minutes. He's cheap (priced at 73) and with the FWD status takes a lot of the risk away. He plays North this week so he should get off the a flyer if you elect to jump on board this week. I'm heavily interested here.


Caleb Daniel ($575k DEF BE 94)


The main reason Daniel is here is because he's cheap. Priced at 81 we know Daniel is a 90 guy. There is value here and last week looked back to his normal self floating across half back. Daniel will be a rollercoaster ride with the threat of a potential tag something you will have to deal with. His consistency is something to be wary of but he's not much of a step up from a rookie and therefore If he's all you can get to I think he's someone to jump on if it gets you a rookie off field.


Josh Kelly ($674k MID/FWD BE 89)


Whitfield back and as I expected we saw Kelly return to his old position. Back up on the wing with a sprinkle of CBA's and as a result Kelly produced a score of old (121). If GWS can maintain a healthy list I expect Kelly to hold this role down and we should see an uptick in scoring from this point forward. Could potentially average 110 from this point forward so he's certainly a strong trade in target.


Andrew Brayshaw ($699k MID BE 84)


If you're looking for a midfield target this is where I'd be looking. Excluding his tag affected scores Brayshaw is averaging 113 which puts him up with the elite. He has a fantasy game about him and with Fyfe in the midfield mix along with Mundy in such strong form I'm not sure we will see Brayshaw receive much attention from this point forward. Currently priced at 98, there is upside here and is one of the better value midfield options. 5% ownership makes him relatively unique which is also a selling point at this stage in the season.


Bachar Houli ($707k DEF BE 99)

Down in price from his starting point, Houli is super unique with a proven ceiling. At this stage everyone is aware of what Houli can produce score wise. Injury is a concern but he's priced quite nicely now and could be a great point of difference if you're looking for a defensive premium option.


Jake Lloyd ($760k DEF BE 118)


Lloyd is Lloyd. We know what his ceiling looks like and as of yet he hasn't gone bang! He will soon and with his upcoming draw it looks like he could be about to hit that patch. He's down $113k on his starting price and ripe for the picking. If I'm looking to pay up for a premium this is my target across all lines at this current stage.


Lachie Hunter ($653k MID/FWD BE 110)


With Dunkley out the spotlight was on Hunter and whether or not he received a role change. It did look like he played a lot more time up on a wing but he was still parked forward at times also. He was on track for a big score but as the Tigers took over and dominated in the second half his scoring died off. Going forward not many teams will do this to the Doggies and if he's getting more opportunity up field his scoring should improve. He's getting super cheap and if he suits your bye you could jump on early. I like him as an option but with a 110 BE you could potentially monitor further.


Rory Sloane ($620k MID BE 66)


Sloane looks like he will return from injury this week. Prior to missing the last 4 weeks with an eye injury Sloane was averaging 95 points. I expect Sloane to slot straight back into the midfield and priced at 86 there's certainly upside here. He'll be super unique coming off injury, no one will own him and I think he's a great underpriced target. Due to it being an eye injury he should be at peak fitness still and therefore I don't think TOG is anything to worry about on his return.


James Worpel ($553k MID BE 56)


Worpel has always been a player I've liked in fantasy. He tackles hard and has the ability to rack up plenty of the pill. For some unknown reason, Hawks have opted to play Worpel in different roles throughout the year which has seen his scoring take a huge hit. With O'Meara out of the side Worpel was able to slot back into an inside midfield role where he excels and as a result scored 124. When playing this role Worpel can easily average 100 points and therefore it's something to monitor. With O'Meara and Wingard to return I expect his role to return back to what it was but if Clarko liked what he saw on the weekend and continues to use Worpel inside from this point forward there could be huge upside here. Don't jump on just yet but he's one to monitor.


Players with Huge Break Evens


If you don't own any of these guys they look set to drop on value significantly and therefore should be high on the trade in list in a few weeks. Don't pounce just yet but certainly monitor and pick up cheap in a couple games time.


Max Gawn ($847k BE 156)

Dustin Martin ($637k BE 145)

Jordan Ridley ($652k BE 144)



Who to Trade Out


When it comes to trade out targets it's pretty straight forward. The goal is to get rookies off the field so you should be looking to downgrade 1 and upgrade another. Players such as Gulden for example are guys that I would be looking to upgrade. Warner and Powell look to be scoring consistently well and therefore I would look to keep those types for a little longer. If you have guys with huge break evens such as Tex Walker they need to be a priority to get out this week before they continue to bleed a stack of cash. With the byes up coming it's more important now than ever to have green dots on your bench and therefore you should be prioritizing trading non-playing rooks over guys that are playing.


You should be considering byes at this stage of the season so if you haven't hit that bye toggle on Fantasy I highly suggest that you do. I'll have a video up on the YouTube channel soon covering this issue. It's important you have a plan and trade accordingly from this point forward in order to achieve that ideal structure. Be smart and disciplined with your trading, I can't stress this enough!


Final Thoughts


With the freedom to trade without injury restriction, this week there are plenty of different ways to approach things. The main thing is that you have a plan going forward and stay disciplined to execute accordingly. Plan out your next few weeks of trades leading up to the byes. As I expressed at the start of the article I don't like bringing in players of $800k+ in value as I don't believe it's beneficial to the longevity of your side at this stage. There are plenty of good value players around and therefore I'd be focusing your trades around the guys I've mentioned in this article. During the byes and post byes is when you can target these types but now the priority needs to be generating cash across the board while the season is still young.


Good luck homies and as always... Keep climbing up the ranks!

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