Trade Talk and Break Evens: Round 6

Another round down and like we've become accustomed to, once again we had plenty of carnage come our way. Ridley, Houston, De Goey, Howe, Clark and Flynn are just a few popular names that would have hurt many coaches. A new week brings hope for those who have had a rough start to the year and in this article I'll be covering what you should be looking to do at this stage along with targets to trade both in and out of your side.


The fantasy season is like a rollercoaster of many exciting points and round 6 is certainly one of those. With the addition of DPP (plenty of viable options) along with the fact that we've hit upgrade season, this is the point in the season where you should really be trying to get rookies off the field and bring in those premiums that will bring points and potentially differentiate you from the current top ranked sides.


In my opinion, mid-price options aren't a viable option at this point. At this stage you should have experimented with mid-pricers and if you haven't got on one who looks to have succeeded then it's probably too late. On the flip side if you have a failed mid-pricer such as Jordan Clark etc... then you would want to be looking at options to move him on this week.


Under-priced premium types and rookie players are likely the only players in which I'll be targeting up until the byes at this stage and therefore most of the focus in this article are going to be on those types of guys.


Trade Out Targets


As mentioned earlier this week you want to be following the path of upgrading one and downgrading one. From experience this is the most effective trade strategy although, double downgrading can also have merit under the right circumstance. This week you want to be focusing on downgrading a cash cow who looks to have maxed out. For example, if you have a Braeden Campbell he's one I would be looking to move on. Mid-price guys such as Clark, Fantasia along with your De Goeys etc are the guys in which you want to be upgrading to premium types. I'd also consider trading out Gulden if the extra cash allows you to get to a premium you like. It's never to early to jump off these rookies and whilst he's been fantastic he's never going to perform at the level of a Tom Mitchell or Lachie Neale. With these Sydney rookies, Horse has indicated that a rest may be install for these kids and so I would make sure you have back up plans in case this is to occur this week. Campbell is the most likely to be rested, with the Sydney game nice and early it shouldn't be to much of an issue for coaches to deal with but it's certainly something to consider if you were looking to target Treloar or Dunkley in the first game.


For those with Ridley or Houston I would be recommending you hold at this stage. If you have suitable cover capable of scoring you a 60 such as Chapman or Bergman this is certainly the route I would be taking. Different to last week with Caleb Daniel, both of these guys are well and truly pushing for a top 6 defender spot and therefore I think it's worth holding this week. Trading sideways, while you might gain an extra 30-50 points this week it prevents you from getting an extra upgrade to a premium and therefore you don't improve your side. With the ultimate goal at this stage being to get rookies off the field as quick as possible, I wouldn't look to sideways trade unless it's a long term injury.


These are the guys I would be looking to move on this week:


1) Jordan De Goey

2) Jordan Clark

3) Braeden Campbell

4) Orazio Fantasia

5) James Jordan


Others on the chopping block:


Tom Phillips


Looked a must have at the start of the season but after last week has proven to be a failed pick. He's still capable of scoring 80+ and therefore I think while he's a trade at some point now probably isn't the time, especially if you're relying on guys like Campbell on the field. You should be looking to get rookies off the field over trading out a guy like Phillips.


Errol Gulden


As mentioned earlier there is nothing wrong with upgrading early and Gulden is certainly one you can consider dumping if it allows you to get to a top premium such as Mitchell or Neale.


Caleb Serong


The only thing that prevented me from starting with Serong this year was the fact he didn't play in the AAMI series, otherwise I would have been stuck in this uncomfortable position. At this stage, this week is the last week you have to trade him out if you want to pursue that option. Getting rookies off the field are more important after this point so if you can't get rid of him you'll have to back him in. I still believe he's a quality player and should come good at some point soon.


Taylor Walker


The Tex train came crashing back to reality last week with a score of 74. For those that jumped on board, he's made the cash you got him for but with a breakeven of 75 now is the time to get out. After copping a calf knock last week which clearly hampered him, along with the fact Adelaide coaching staff have hinted at resting him at points this year, I'd be getting out if you can. I don't think he averages much more than 80 from this point forward.


Seb Ross


Has managed a decent role inside which hasn't correlated to points. St Kilda might need a shake up their inside look to get a better mix of speed/contested types in there. Ross is probably the first bloke to go out of the mix and has clearly been a failed pick to this point as it is. I'd be moving him off this week.


Rookies To Target


Miles Bergman ($273k DEF/FWD BE: -8)


Looks to be a consistent 60's scorer which is all you can ask for. Comes in with the lowest breakeven of the round and is set to make plenty of cash. The addition of DEF status during the week has increased his value a fair bit with the lack of good defence rookie options. Being a Port player the job security is always going to be a concern and having the last game of the round is a query in bringing him in this week. I think he should hold his spot (Houston and Hartlett likely out helps his cause) and if you can work your trades around the Sunday then I think it's worth waiting to see if he is named and jumping on board if you can afford him at the inflated price.


Finlay Macrae ($247k MID/FWD BE: 20)


Looks to be a player. Got given plenty of opportunity on ball in the last quarter last week which resulted in 12 disposals and 32 points. Should have good JS and looks like a rookie you don't want to miss out on. Get on board this week if you don't already have him.


Jy Farrar ($256k FWD BE: -3)


Played down back for the Suns last week and was quite impressive. Gold Coast are a team that rack up plenty of points in defence and therefore it's a perfect environment for a rookie such as Farrar to perform well. After a big score last week he comes in with a nice breakeven and should be a great short term cash generator.


Will Kelly ($172k FWD BE: 25)


With the stack of injuries and outs Collingwood will have this week I expect that we will see Will Kelly named this week. At basement price with what should be good job security he's certainly an option for those who need a cheaper option. He's always been a forward but he was trialed in defence in the two's last week which may be a sign of what is to come with Howe injured and Collingwood set on using Moore up forward. Not quite sure what this does to his scoring potential but he was never going to be a super scorer regardless.


Atu Bosenavulagi ($224k FWD BE: 9)


Played in defence last week and looked fantastic, especially in the first half. With Hall out with Concussion and McDonald out long term he should hold his spot down back. North are obviously giving their young kids as much opportunity as possible as we've seen with some other kids such as: Phillips, Powell and Lazzaro. Now he's in the side he should be able to string some games together and he looks a decent option.


Beau McCreery ($240k FWD BE: -2)


I thought he may struggle against West Coast last week but he still managed to rack up 59 points. I don't usually like these small forward types but he's exactly what Collingwood need and therefore I can see him staying in the side long term. Great pressure forward who can make some money short term.


Liam Stocker ($242k DEF BE: 35)


Solid option in defence if he is named. Has high wraps and racked up a stack of footy in the VFL. Could be one of the better defender options we see this year. With a BE of 35 you can afford to watch him go around first so he's not a must to jump on first game. Certainly keep an eye out for him.


Jay Rantall ($170k MID BE: 25)


Ready made physically with great scoring potential. If he's named this week with the pies being relatively depleted then he certainly becomes an option.


As a rule I don't like to jump on guys who are $300k plus. At this stage you want to be upgrading elsewhere and you don't bank as much cash going to these guys. Therefore, options such as Archie Perkins and Heath Chapman are now out of reach for those who do not own them and I would be looking elsewhere.


Premiums to Target


At this stage building value is still key and therefore it's important to target underpriced premiums. You want to get these rookies off the field ASAP and therefore spending $842k for Oliver opposed to $747k for Neale may be the difference in you getting another premium upgrade next week. The time will come when you can get these big blokes in but outside of Gawn/Grundy I wouldn't be looking at anyone who has an $800k + price tag at this point.


This leads me to Josh Dunkley. In my opinion if you don't have him (like myself) you just have to ride it out. All the top sides own him and therefore by getting on now you don't gain any advantage. If you get on board now you're paying close to top dollar and gaining no edge on the top coaches as they are already getting his scores. I think the smarter move is to let him slide and pick up another option at a cheaper price who may give you a point of difference. For example if you opt to trade in a Fyfe you save 125k which can go towards upgrades next week and with a good run of games could potentially average similar over the next month or so.


There are obviously a heap of premium options out there but these are the underpriced premium options I think are ripe for the picking:


MIDFIELDERS


Tom Mitchell ($773k MID BE 116)


Currently priced at 107 Mitchell currently provides value. He's not going down much more and having strung a few games together he looks prime to get back to that level we all know him for. A big 140 score is just around the corner and at 11% ownership he's certainly a target.


Lachie Neale ($747k MID BE 86)


Last week Neale got back to his best pumping out a big 145. He's probably the cheapest he's going to be all year which makes now a good time to get on board. Against Carlton this week he's inevitably going to get tagged by Curnow who has done some good jobs on other players this year. He could struggle this week which is a slight turn off but he's still an option as an underpriced premo.


Adam Treloar ($730k MID BE: 87)


After a slow start to the year, Treloar is well and truly ticking now. Still priced well below his potential at 102 means he still has 10 points upside indicated by previous years averages and his last 3 average of 112. The bulldogs are the number 1 fantasy side this year and therefore he should continue to flourish. He's getting less chip mark then is previous years but he's still a premium option and he's the cheapest out of the guys I've mentioned so far. He does play on Friday night which could limit your trade options later in the week so he's not one I would be considering if you're riding a Houston on a Sunday for example. Still a fantastic option to jump on now.


Andrew Brayshaw ($689k MID BE: 114)


Outside of the 2 games where Brayshaw has been heavily tagged this year he has managed to average 114. He has proven he can score and has the ability to compete with the better mids this season. The worry is he has also proven he doesn't cope well with attention. Against the Roos this week we could see Kayne Turner go to him. With Lobb back in the side it looks like we could see Fyfe deployed mainly as a midfielder which should help take some of the attention off Brayshaw. Priced at 95, he's certainly underpriced in my opinion and worth considering.


Darcy Parish ($628k MID BE: 78)


Since moving back into a full time midfield role Parish has averaged 99 over the last 3 weeks. Currently priced at 87 there is still value here as someone who can be considered an underpriced premium. At this stage I think it's better if you can get to a set and forget type such as Mitchell, Neale, Treloar etc... but I still think Parish can average 100 points and provide a decent amount of value for you if you decide to get on board now.


DEFENDERS


Luke Ryan ($618k DEF BE: 84)


With the inclusion of Logue last week we saw Ryan freed up allowing him to play his old role which looks to be much more fantasy relevant. After scoring 113 last week I think Ryan is a genuine option in defence and priced at 85 is someone who could push 95 if he can hold this role down. Super unique at 2% ownership and someone who comes in cheaper than other premium defenders, I certainly don't mind it.


Tom Stewart ($709k DEF BE: 85)


After a slow start to the season Stewart has managed to average 107 in his last 3. Currently priced at 98 he probably isn't going to get any cheaper any time soon. He's one who could finish a top 6 defender and if his current form and form at the end of last year is to go by he could average 105 from here on out making him value at the price.


Jack Crisp ($719k DEF/MID BE: 92)


Crisp is a solid reliable and versatile player. He doesn't miss games which is a huge tick and in my opinion will average 100-105 for the season. There could be some slight value at the price but you're getting him as a reliable premium option. He plays super high TOG and with Collingwood injuries they will rely on him to carry the side. Safe premium who should be on the target list.


Dyson Heppell ($586k DEF/MID BE: 74)


Recently added defender status which makes him much more viable. Currently priced at 81 and should average close to 90 from here, history suggests potentially more. He might not be a top 6 defender and his recent injury history are queries I have over him. No Ridley this week against the Pies means plenty of points and kick ins. Those who get on will be rewarded this week with a good score. He's a cheaper option if you can't afford a genuine upgrade.


RUCK


Reilly O'Brien ($685k RUC BE: 82)


Didn't look great last week despite his score of 91. Got beaten in the ruck by Sean Darcy which isn't what you want to see. I still have confidence we can see O'Brien bounce back to his heights he set last season. Priced at 95 he's still 10 points underpriced and he's by far the best ruck option if you can't get to Grundy or Gawn.


Max Gawn ($878k RUC BE: 105) and Brodie Grundy ($853k RUC BE: 117)


Not much to say here other than set and forget. These are the only two guys I would consider over 800k at this stage and if you can get to them the earlier the better.


FORWARDS


Nat Fyfe ($688k MID/FWD BE: 100)


There are a lot of options forward available now but most of them are still slightly overpriced are on the down trend. The premium I like the most at their current price is Fyfe. He's priced at 95 which doesn't seem like much value but with Lobb back we should see Fyfe back to his dominant best in the middle and with a nice stretch of games he should be good for those that get on. The new rules look to suit him and while he has always been around that 100 mark I think if he can string some games together and get a good run on he can average 100-105.


Shai Bolton ($563k MID/FWD BE: 66)


After last season we know that Shai is very capable when used in the midfield. The injury to Prestia saw Bolton return back to his midfield role which resulted in a score of 107. I've always been keen on Bolton and at a cheaper price he's one to consider.


Others To Keep An Eye On


These are some blokes who are trending downwards but may be primed for the picking in a couple weeks time:


Steele Sidebottom

Patrick Dangerfield

Jordon Ridley

Caleb Daniel

Dan Houston

Josh Kelly


Final Thoughts


With Ridley, Daniel and Houston all looking to be ripe in a few weeks, and with all potentially pushing a top 6 defender spot (Maybe not Daniel) I'm slightly reluctant to upgrade in defence knowing I could get one of these guys soon at a good price. There do look to be some decent options in defence though and with defender rookies being the weakest/least reliable it could pay off upgrading here early. On the flip side the forwards don't look to present much at this current point in time. There are certainly options but I think I'm more inclined to wait another 1 or 2 weeks at least before bringing some of these guys in (Hence why my "guys to keep an eye on" section contains a lot of forwards). I think the best options to bring in this week are in the midfield and so that's most likely where I'll be looking with guys like Mitchell, Neale and Treloar heavily on my radar.


I usually include my trade plans but at this stage guys I'm very undecided and it's going to come down to team selections to what I end up doing. The guys I've outlined in this article in terms of trade out/trade in targets is where I'll be looking with Campbell, Clark and Fantasia to be considered out and Mitchell my priority if I can get there.


As always, cheers for reading legends. I hope this has helped in deciding what to do with your side this week and until next time... Keep climbing up the ranks!

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