Trade Talk and Break Evens: Round 5

After a small hiatus I'm back and what a round of footy we just had. The carnage list seems to get longer each week and with 2 trades a round its becoming a struggle to manage our sides early. With fresh carnage in the likes of Daniel, Butters and Adams on top of other guys blokes may still have from last week ie. Sloane, Young etc. There are plenty options for you to trade in this week and so like usual I'm going to give my top trade targets this week along with who I think you should be getting rid of.

Unlike previous weeks I'm going to skip over the lowest break evens and jump straight into the rookies and which ones are the best targets. With many teams starting to accumulate DNP's on their bench it is super important to factor in strong job security when selecting rookies from here on out. When the byes come you'll want to have your bench in a strong position to be able to navigate accordingly and therefore you may have to select some guys who may not have the lowest break even so to speak but have a better chance of consistent game time.

Top Rookies to Consider

Finlay Macrae ($234k MID/FWD)

Half brother of Jackson which gives you an idea of what he's capable of. Talk is that Finn is further developed than what Jackson was at this stage of his career and with midfield opportunities present at Collingwood I expect that's where Finn will play. I can see him spending time inside and outside with potential stints at half forward. His ability along with his role should result in high scoring for a rookie and with Collingwood wanting to get games into this man along with injuries leaving holes long term he should have strong job security also.

Lachie Jones ($261k DEF)

Jones played a great first game for the power, he won several vital contests and got involved moving the ball out of defence. While he laid 0 tackles that wasn't indicative of his effort and he should be able to lay plenty more which makes his score of 68 even more impressive. He did make some mistakes which Hinkley highlighted after the game but with injuries to Butters and Duursma it gives Port less flexibility within their side and therefore may have strengthened Jones's job security.

Miles Bergman ($227k FWD)

With Butters and Duursma injured, I think Miles now comes back into the side. The Port coaching staff highlighted that who ever was to come in for these blokes would probably hold that role for an extended period which is always good to hear. Miles has a super low breakeven and whilst I wasn't keen on him earlier in the year injury breeds opportunity and he may be someone worth looking at for your side.

Chris Burgess ($257k DEF)

As expected Burgess played a fair bit of game time in the ruck last week rotating with Caleb Graham. His score of 51 is probably what can be expected going forward but he should have strong job security for at least a few weeks until gold coast get some ruck stocks back. Even then I think he should hold his spot up forward as a back up so he should be reliable to play consistently for you. I would try and keep him limited to a bench spot but even at the price he could be worth a look and especially with ruck issues if he's lucky enough to get RUC DPP next week it could be super helpful.

Nik Cox ($353k DEF/FWD)

This kid looks to be a super star of the future. I doubted his ability to be able to score in the pre-season but his wing role seems to see him cover the ground well and get involved in all areas of the game (Evens spent time in the ruck). Whilst Cox looked brilliant on the weekend I think at his price you've missed the boat and there are other options cheaper who will have similar scoring output.

Devon Robertson ($266k MID/FWD)

As expressed last week Dev was only 1 poor game away from losing his spot. I wasn't sure he was going to play last week with Berry due to come back so it was encouraging to see him selected as well as Berry. If you own him already you have to hope he holds his spot but If you're not an owner I wouldn't be getting on now.

Alec Waterman ($229k FWD)

Waterman isn't the type of player you usually want in your fantasy side but he does come with what looks to be very strong job security. He's hitting the scoreboard for the Dons and providing good pressure as well as a target up forward. I don't think he's leaving the side anytime soon so despite his lack of scoring ability he's still an option due to his job security.

Connor Idun ($296k DEF)

Has been solid for those that have him but with others to come into the side Idun could be the one that gets axed when that time comes. At the price he's at I would be avoiding him.

Josh Treacy ($190k RUC/FWD)

With Rory Lobb touted to play either this week or next there are too many questions over how Freo are going to set up and either Treacy or Meek will be leaving the side you would think. As a result I would be staying away.

Beau McCreery ($205k FWD)

Was solid on debut but against West Coast at Optus could be a different story. He brought great energy and looks the type that Collingwood are looking for. I think he could hold his spot for a while but I probably wouldn't jump on with some of the options around this week.

Heath Chapman (316k DEF)

For those that paid up and got on board last week well done. Chapman looks to be a fantastic rookie with very solid job security and good scoring ability. He's pretty expensive so it's hard to recommend getting on now. I think you're probably better off taking a punt on Jones for 55k cheaper.

Will Kelly (172k FWD)

Kelly is one who may get a game this week for the Pies. If he is named you can jump straight on if you're looking for a basement priced option. His scoring may be limited due to him likely playing a hit up target in the forward line but his job security should be strong. Bench option only but one to get on board if he is named.

Top 5 Rookies

1) Lachie Jones

2) Finlay Macrae

3) Miles Bergman

4) Will Kelly

5) Heath Chapman

Top Mid Price Targets

Callan Ward ($512k MID) BE 41

With GWS losing Coniglio and De Boer the week prior it was clear GWS were going to have to make changes to their midfield set up. Having played an inconsistent role all year, this week we saw Ward attend 88% CBA's which would see him accumulate 37 touches and score 121. We all know Ward can average 90-100 as he's done it time after time in the past. With the shallow midfield depth I expect this role will continue and priced at 70 there is plenty here to like.

Changkuoth Jiath (501k DEF) BE 18

Jiath is an absolute intercept god. This bloke just floats across packs and takes mark after mark and then proceeds to launch his team out of attack. Usually these types aren't great fantasy prospects but he seems to be aggressive in his positioning and works hard to present as an option when his team is moving the ball out of defence. We've seen enough at this stage to know what you're getting and at the price there is still money to be made here.

Lachie Ash ($516k DEF) BE 21

Had spent a fair bit of time up on a wing this year but this week we saw Ash play more of a half back role which resulted in him boosting his kick in numbers. His drive off half back looks to be elite and his will to spread into space and demand the footy presents as something all Fantasy coaches love to see. A big score of 122 will sit in his price changes for weeks to come and he should be capable of continuing to score well.

Isaac Cumming ($502k DEF) BE 34

Cumming has been a terrific pick up for those who got on board early. He comes in with a break even higher than both Jiath and Ash and as a money spinner that probably puts him down the pecking order. It wasn't great signs to see Ash go back last week and mop up a lot of the ball in which Cumming was getting in weeks prior. He still managed to score well and should continue on his merry way but I would probably have him behind those other two at this stage.

Aaron Hall ($546k FWD) BE 48

Aaron looks to have found a role on the wing/half back line for the Roos and with an Injury to McDonald it looks like this could be consolidated further. After his sub effected score of 11, Hall has managed to post scores of 99 and 123. He looks to be taking a fair chunk of the kick ins in what looks to be an even split with Ziebell. The ball is always going to spend plenty of time in the North defensive half which will allow him to receive plenty of opportunity. It's a risky pick but there has been a clear role switch which indicated fantasy potential. I don't mind the look of this one especially as a forward where the "Top 6" isn't as clear cut yet as other lines.

Top Premium Targets

Max Gawn ($866k RUC) and or Brodie Grundy ($852k RUC)

With the likelihood of Flynn, Meek and Hunter all not playing being relatively high it's almost a priority to get to set and forget ASAP. If you have Caleb Daniel I would be looking at using some DPP to try and get to one of these guys you don't have this week as those with Flynn at R2 may have some headaches for weeks to come. These guys are the clear cut top 2 so I would be going straight to them if possible.

Riley O'Brien ($681k RUC)

Having dropped $147k on his starting price the last two games have indicated that O'Brien is back. Having bottomed out and priced at 93 there is certainly value here based off his average of 108 last year. If you can't get to Gawn/Grundy this is the man you have to target and bring in this week.

Jordan Ridley ($740k DEF)

Ridley looks to be playing that sweeper in defence and Essendon use him to switch the ball as much as possible. He's great in the air and can take a pack mark as well as racking up 20-30 points from kick ins each game. He's priced at 101 so he's getting close to max value but at this rate he could average 105-110 so he's only going to continue to climb in price.

Tom Mitchell ($781k MID)

The pig was fantastic on the weekend and although he received some attention from Brayshaw in the second half he still managed to score a 120 (was on track for a potential 150). We all know how much of a fantasy beast this man is and priced at 106 there is certainly upside. I can't see him getting much lower and at 11% ownership now is the time to get on if you can. Certain top 8 midfielder with the potential to average 115+.

Adam Treloar ($720k MID)

Having been eased back to fitness via a wing type role, Treloar looks to be back and firing as an onballer. He looks back to his best and I expect his CBA numbers from last week to become a regular thing. Currently priced at 98 for a bloke who has pushed 110+ multiple times is great value and one I would look to bring in this week.

Who to Trade Out

As for who you should be trading out, if you have injuries or guys not playing ie. Sloane, Butters, Daniel etc.. they should be your first priority to trade out.

Next I would be focusing on your bench players. Lots of teams are starting to accumulate non-playing players on the bench which while not a major issue right now could become one in a months time. You want to try get on top of this issue now and if you are able to I would be moving on guys like Hunter and Highmore along with other non-playing rooks you may have.

If your team is in a healthy position then I would look to fix up some failed/maxed out mid-price guys such as Clark, Fantasia, Markov etc

For those who do not have Caleb Daniel or any other forced trades I think this week is the perfect opportunity to do a double downgrade and fix two non-playing bench rooks for two rookies I have mentioned above.

If you have Caleb Daniel and are fielding Flynn at R2 I think your priority needs to be to turn him into a top ruck for stability going forward.

For those with Gawn/Grundy/O'Brien combo already you can look to move Caleb (or another non-playing guy) to a mid price option with my top ones being outlined above. This move could bank you 100-150k which could be handy if you have trade plans in mind that require cash for next week. The other option is to just upgrade to a set and forget premium player. This could be a great opportunity to get on a Tom Mitchell before the rest of the competition does.


My Current Trade Plans

For those wondering what I'm looking to do it will most likely be something similar to these trades here. As outlined earlier I think it is super important to fix your ruck this week as GWS may elect to play Mumford again and having to rely on Flynn is just not stable. With Lobb either back this week or next I think we will see Meek dropped and therefore if Flynn doesn't play this week you could be looking at a doughnut. I've elected to trade Meek for this reason as I think he's either gone this week or next and has little money to make regardless. Having spent all my bank last week to get Witts to Grundy I can't afford to get Gawn this week and therefore I will be settling for O'Brien. If you can afford Gawn I would go straight to him.

As always thanks for reading guys! I've been super busy of late and therefore I haven't had the time to post as much content. I hope this article has helped in guiding you in what trades you should be looking at this week.

Until next time... Keep climbing up the ranks!

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