Trade Talk and Break Evens: Round 4

Updated: Apr 14

With the conclusion of round 3 I could not get to the trade table faster. After an average round myself I was also hit with the two biggest injuries of the round being Young and Witts. Unfortunately, others may have had a Coniglio to deal with also.


At this point in the season different sides are dealt different situations and therefore there are a variety of ways to approach your trades from this point forward. You may have forced trades like myself, you may have half your bench not playing and therefore need to do some rookie patching, you may have a bit more luxury and want to move on a under performer such as Paddy Dow or Jordan Clark. In this weeks edition of trade talk I'll cover all these scenarios and provide options for you to consider.


The underlying principle is the same as all weeks. You want to be targeting players who look to rise in value ie rookies or mid-pricers and or you want to be upgrading to a premium player (who is underpriced).



Lowest Break Evens


Looking at the lowest break evens for this week you can see the top guys are still those "must have" rookies I recommended in round 1 and 2. If you don't have a Warner/Gulden/Flynn/Jordon this is your last opportunity to get on board and I strongly advise you pick these guys up if you are not an owner.


As mentioned in my round 3 review, we have an interesting situation with key forwards this year. As you can see both Taylor Walker and Josh Bruce are in the list of lowest break evens after both kicking huge bags on the weekend. If you're looking for a mid-price option, Taylor Walker could be a decent shout. In previous years I would have never recommended this but he's in great form and comes up against North Melbourne this week who Bruce kicked 10 on last week. He should kick another few goals at least and even if he only scores 70-80 he'll make a fair chunk on coin for you. With all the carnage we are seeing you may have to be content with having to keep him around for a while and you will also need to burn a trade on him later to take advantage of that cash generation but I think he's an option for those in a luxury position. If you're in a position like myself where it doesn't make sense to do a move like this, don't worry! He's not a must have and there will be plenty of opportunities like this throughout the season.


As for my top rookie downgrade options this week we have:


1) Chris Burgess ($221k DEF) -7 BE

2) Heath Chapman ($279k DEF) 9 BE

3) Devon Robertson ($228k MID/FWD) -17

4) Luke Parks ($191k DEF) 1 BE

5) Nick Shipley ($187k MID) 6 BE

6) Alec Waterman ($198k FWD) -4 BE


Chris Burgess: Burgess shapes up as the best cash cow this week only under the right circumstances. With the injuries Gold Coast have they are desperate for ruck options and only really have the two available. These are both Burgess and Caleb Graham. I would want to see Burgess named in the ruck to warrant selection, if Gold Coast opt to play Graham and use Burgess as a key forward who plays back up I will be looking elsewhere and therefore he would slide well down this list.


Heath Chapman: A reasonably tall bloke who has great intercept ability along with good foot skills and run out of defence. Freo are quite depleted down back and with Hayden Young going down recently it gives Chapman a great opportunity to stay in the side long term. You pay a bit extra for him but his Job Security should be super solid and his scoring should be good enough also.


Devon Robertson: Super numbers as a junior and showed that in the big league notching up 93 points. There is no doubt over his scoring ability but I'm not convinced his job security is any good and to be honest with Berry looking to come back in I'm not sure he will even get a game this week. We've seen how quick Brisbane have been to pull the trigger on other youngsters such as Sharp and Prior so even if he is named I would tread with extreme caution. Could be lower down on my list and he only sits here based off his scoring potential.


Luke Parks: Carlton rate this kids ability to have a crack and on the weekend I thought he played his role really well. Might not have the best scoring ability but I think he has attributes which could see him stay in the side for a while. With defender rookies being so slim this year along with the fact that we may not have Highmore or Kosi this week, Parks presents as an option.


Nick Shipley: Came on early as the sub last week and managed to score 51 from 66% TOG. Injuries to Coniglio, Davis and De Boer means two potential midfield spots open up. Whether the Giants choose to play Kelly more inside or rotate others around and bring in some forwards, I'm not sure this will have to be monitored. I think being the sub last week and having two midfielders come out you would think Shipley gets a crack and at a cheaper price to the rest of the blokes on this list along with his scoring ability being quite decent he's one you can look at.


Alec Waterman: I'm not the biggest fan of these types of players as their scoring can be quite volatile. Essendon aren't the best side and as a forward he may get limited opportunity as he will need to kick goals to score well. He did only manage to score 68 in a game where Essendon won by 75 points which aren't great signs for his scoring going forward. His job security should be okay but he will be a slow burn so I think there are better options.



Forced trades


Jarrad Witts Owners:


If you're a Witts owner now is the time to get either Grundy or Gawn. These are my options for you to consider:


1) If you have Witts as your R1 you should be going to Grundy/Gawn this week. In my opinion Grundy is the best option out of the two and the one you should be targeting. He also presents as a great captain option this week up against Flynn who Gawn pumped a 135 on last week. I would be doing anything I could to make this move work this week as you will need these guys going forward, going to another mid-price guy doesn't make sense as there aren't any genuine options.


2) If you have Grundy/Gawn in R1 and Witts in R2 I think you have more options. You can either get Grundy/Gawn and roll with a set and forget setup for the rest of the year or you can opt to trade Witts down to a rookie, play Flynn on the field and use the cash to upgrade elsewhere. Both of these options are viable and it comes down to what you can do with that cash and if you need to strengthen other lines or not.


3) This isn't an option but I've been asked about it so I thought I would touch on it quickly. Can you play two rookie rucks on the field? The answer here is no. With Darcy getting fitter and looking good Freo could opt to change their setup and roll with Darcy in the ruck and potentially a Treacy up forward. Meek may lose his spot sometime soon and with Hunter looking to be done for the year with Marshall back likely this week and Ryder on the horizon, Flynn is the only guy I would be trusting on field.


* If you have more than 2 forced trades, if Meek is named you could look to possibly do this for 1 week and fix Witts to Grundy next week but I think that with Grundy's match up this week I would prioritise getting him now.


Hayden Young Owners:


With Hayden Young you really have a plethora of ways to approach this situation with lots of options being plausible.


1) You can opt to downgrade and use this cash to go towards an upgrade. This will be the most popular option for those who also have Witts and need the cash to get to Grundy. This week we have a few options in Burgess, Chapman and Parks who all look to be decent options.


2) The second option is to go to another mid-priced player who looks to generate some coin. The two most popular players here are Cumming and Jiath. Personally I think Cumming is ahead for the fact that he takes a high % of the kick ins and therefore has that baseline of free points that Jiath does not have. There is the concern that Whitfield will be back in a few weeks and may take some of these points from Cumming but by then you may be looking to upgrade him to a premium option anyway and there is no guarantee Whitfield plays down back anyway. With injuries to Cogs and De Boer they may use Kelly more inside and use Whitfield on the wing. Something to consider but I wouldn't let it turn you off picking him.


3) If you have cash in the bank there is no reason why you can't use this opportunity to go up to a premo. If you don't have Laird he is the obvious but other options I like are: Callum Mills, Jordan Ridley and Jake Lloyd.


Stephen Coniglio Owners:


In this position you only really have the 1 option although you could possibly consider a 2nd.


1) Option 1 and the obvious is to swap to an underpriced premium. Some of these guys include Adam Treloar, Andrew Gaff, Tim Taranto etc.. These guys look to be at the bottom of their price range and ready to rise back up. These are the types I would be targeting opposed to spending 100-200k and going up to a Macrae/Merrett type for example.


2) If you have some DPP flexibility you could opt to go to a mid price guy such as Cumming/Tex and bank yourself 100-200k to put towards an upgrade with your second trade. For example, this could be a move you would consider if you have a Witts and needed to get to Grundy.



Top Trade Targets


Top 5 Mid-Price Targets


1) Isaac Cumming ($462k DEF) 19 BE

2) Taylor Walker ($558k FWD) -9 BE

3) Changkuoth Jiath ($444k DEF) 12 BE

4) Darcy Parish ($608k MID) 77 BE

5) Willem Drew ($436k MID) 32 BE


Top 5 Premium Targets


1) Brodie Grundy ($856k RUC) 101 BE

2) Andrew Gaff ($754k MID) 102 BE

3) Callum Mills ($736k DEF) 95

4) Jordan Ridley ($717k DEF) 74

5) Adam Treloar ($715k MID) 121



Highest Break Evens


As mentioned last week you should be looking to hold your premium players at this stage. If you own any of the guys on this list don't be alarmed, stay calm and they will come good. We saw what happened last week with players such as Gaff (154), Lloyd (119) and the likes.


While a few of these guys are injured there are some guys on here who are genuine options you will want in your side at some point and therefore it's important to monitor them now. I'm talking about Steele Sidebottom, Clayton Oliver and Tom Mitchell. These guys look to be on the down trend so monitor them and pick them up when given an opportunity in the following weeks.


Some other premiums to monitor who don't fit this list include: Max Gawn, Jake Lloyd, Taylor Adams, Adam Treloar, Josh Kelly and a few others you can check by filtering the break evens on the AFL Fantasy website



My Current Trades



As mentioned in my Round 3 Review article, my trades this week are unlikely to change. Witts to Grundy will be happening regardless and as for the first trade I'll be monitoring the team sheets. If Burgess is named in the ruck, depending on who else is in the side and the likelihood that ruck role is his role going forward will determine if I roll with him or not. If Gold Coast decide to bring Graham in or look to use Burgess as a support ruck then I'll be opting to go with Chapman instead.


As always cheers for reading guys! Good luck with your trades this week and until next time... Keep climbing up the ranks!

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