Trade Talk and Break Evens: Round 19

Round 18 was nothing short of absolute carnage for most coaches. Not only did coaches pick up injuries (yes... multiple), we were also reminded how important bench cover can be. Those with Mills got well and truly shafted but those who had Bianco (74) EMG would have felt a lot better than someone who had Madden (23) EMG. At this stage of the year an injury equals a trade.



(For those interested in what my side currently looks like, where I'm ranked and what moves I'm looking at)


Those who have Dusty and Mills, I'd be looking for a replacement. Those who have Darcy and Kelly, I'd be waiting for teams as they look like they still might be a chance. If these guys aren't named then I'd be trading. This type of money is to much to be sitting on the pine, with 5 rounds to go you need every point you can get on field. I'd be replacing these guys with a best 22 premium who is of value and or going down to a top value (cheaper) candidate to upgrade elsewhere.


Kelly is an interesting one as he plays the final game of the round and could easily be a late out. I'd make sure that if he is named and you decide to hold, make sure you have some decent bench cover for him. If Kelly is to play how solid is he going to be? He's injured this ankle twice in the last few weeks and with Coniglio now back and finding fitness, will the Giants park Kelly up forward again to ease him through. If so you could potentially look at a trade either way all things considered. This is a tough spot.


Guys To Consider


DEFENDERS


Jake Lloyd ($676k DEF BE 88)

Top 50 Ownership: 38%

Priced At: 93


Lloyd has a proven record, has scored consistently all year, and despite being slightly down on past seasons I expect Lloyd to finish the season strongly with a nice run of games. At the price, Lloyd is my pick of the defenders and with low ownership amongst top coaches, he's a great pick. I do expect his ownership to rise this week with many coaches looking to move Mills on.


Jordon Dawson ($646k DEF BE 71) Top 50 Ownership: 0%

Priced At: 89


Dawson's been in great form of late posting a 3 game average of 101. Dawson is consistent and safe for an 85-90 score week in week out. The thing I like most here is his run of games. His fixture looks quite juicy which makes me think he can average something closer to what he has the last 3 weeks. There isn't much value in defence with most genuine options either fully priced or unavailable. I'd clearly prefer Lloyd over Dawson as there is only 30k difference but if you have Lloyd and are looking at a Hurn/Salem type that's where this gets interesting... Those guys are no guarantee for a top 6 defender spot and come in 70k more expensive. I genuinely think Dawson could be 95+ for the remainder of the year which makes him slight value and a super POD with 0% ownership amongst top sides. The cheaper price tag means you may be able to downgrade a Mills type to him and use that $150k elsewhere to get rid of another spud. I think he's an interesting option.


MIDFIELDERS


Andrew Gaff ($658k MID BE 90)

Top 50 Ownership: 4%

Priced At: 90


Gaff has been a fantasy stud the last few seasons posting averages of 110+ for the past 3 years. It's clear that Gaff has had a down season. Mr consistent of the past has been far from that this season producing rollercoaster type numbers resulting in 1 100+ score in his last 7 games. Multiple role changes between inside and outside along with injury setbacks to both himself and other teammates have made it difficult for Gaff to gain any momentum and confidence. A good win on the weekend should give West Coast a decent platform to build from and with most names back and finding form I expect Gaff's output to increase. Some faster ball movement allowed for Gaff to get on the end of more handball receives and utilize that outside run a bit more. He can produce a ceiling score and with a relatively good run of games, at the price, I think he's certainly one that can be considered if you're strapped on cash.


Tim Kelly ($583k MID BE 59)

Top 50 Ownership: 8%

Priced At: 80


Whilst I preach trading in best 22 players at this time of year, you can make exceptions under circumstances and TK is a bloke I can put in this category. A high-risk pick last week due to that knee concern but he looked in good order and therefore I feel he should be fine going forward. Whilst I don't think he's a top mid he should produce numbers in that 95-100 range and priced at 80 he is great value. His cheap price could allow you to upgrade elsewhere and or get rid of an underperformer for close to no cost and a slight point gain. The only negative is that he is mid-only and takes up a high-scoring slot in your side but if you're struggling I think he's worth the punt.


Taylor Adams ($766k MID BE 103)

Top 50 Ownership: 22%

Priced At: 105


Had a down game on the weekend (89) but I wouldn't be put off by this. He looks fit and is moving well. I expect his output to be around that 110 mark which makes him value. He's underpriced, has low enough ownership, and has a high ceiling. One of the better midfield options.


Clayton Oliver ($752k MID BE 95)

Top 50 Ownership: 26%

Priced At: 103


It was a matter of time before Oliver hit a ceiling game. He was back to his best on the weekend and reminded those non-believers what he's truly capable of. As I've stated for multiple weeks, I do think Oliver will be 110+ for the rest of the season. He's my number 1 of the underpriced midfield types.


Lachie Neale ($737k MID BE

Top 50 Ownership: 30%

Priced At: 101


Looked to be a value premium in the same category as Adams, Oliver, and Guthrie but recent news suggests he's injured that same shoulder that he hurt in round 15 against Geelong. I'd be staying clear for now regardless if he is named or not. Could prove a headache for the 30% of coaches in the top 50.


*Seems like Brissy are confident he plays. I'd still be avoiding. There are safer options at the same price.


Cam Guthrie ($747k MID BE 112)

Top 50 Ownership: 0%

Priced At: 102


As I stated last week Guthrie is certainly someone of low ownership who can produce a big score and give you a good point of difference to finish the season. Whilst I don't think he's a top 8 mid he's close enough to consider. I'd still have Oliver and Adams ahead of him but with those types creeping in ownership, Guthrie should be similar in output and will be more unique.


Jacob Hopper ($678k MID BE 78)

Top 50 Ownership: 0%

Priced At: 93


He's been in ripping form of late. Has always been a solid player but has never elevated to that next level. It looks like Hopper has certainly lifted and assumes the number 1 midfielder for the Giants. Whilst Hopper has been great a 102 average in his last 3 probably isn't enough to justify him at the price. With so many names going through the middle for the Giants it looks like they'll share an even split which isn't great. I'd look at Hopper as a starter next year but not at this stage.


Brayden Fiorini ($679k MID BE 74)

Top 50 Ownership: 0%

Priced At: 93


Fiorini has always had great fantasy tendencies, the issue with Brayden has always been job security and even when having high disposal games in the past he's found his way out of the side due to poor disposal and decision making. I was wary of Brayden getting dropped but it looks like the Suns are happy with his output at the moment having attended the second most CBA's behind Touk Miller (71%). He's put together 3 100+ scores in a row and I think he does present as an option for those on a budget. Gold Coast does have one of the harder draws which is certainly something to consider.


FORWARDS


Jordon De Goey ($686k MID/FWD BE 49)

Top 50 Ownership: 76%

Priced At: 94


What a revelation! I feel like JDG's season has been a representation for most people's fantasy season in general with plenty of ups and plenty of lows. A midfield shift has resulted in a huge uptick in scoring with a 5 game average of 109 and a 3 game of 120. He's also managed to increase $200k in this period of time. Now priced at $686k (94) the value is gone to a large extent and his ownership is quite high. In saying that he looks to be a top 6 forward and if he continues this form he could average 100+ from here. I think you can still justify him at the inflated price but he is less appealing now, especially for those looking to gain rank.


Mathew Kennedy ($599k MID/FWD BE 57) Top 50 Ownership: 16%

Priced At: 82


A cheaper forward option I've recommended for the past couple weeks. Cripps out meant Kennedy was able to play a full-time inside role (80% CBA's) which saw him thrive (second-best behind Walsh). This performance should see his role all but locked and still sub $600k (Priced at 83) I expect Kennedy to be 90+ from here. There's plenty of guys around that price who you can make a case for but I feel Kennedy is one of the safer bets. His run of games to finish the season is another huge tick. If I was tossing up between him and JDG, I'd probably be going Kennedy due to the price gap. He's one of the better forward options if not the best in my opinion.


Shai Bolton ($584k MID/FWD BE 90)

Top 50 Ownership: 0%

Priced At: 80


Bolton is a game-changer for the Tigers and with Dusty now out for the remainder of the season, the Tiges will need some big efforts in order to make the Finals. Dusty out provides a large quantity of CBA's in which I expect Bolton to pick up. Bolton's CBA usage has been high the last couple of weeks and as a result, he's been scoring well. The top 6 forwards are very up in the air and Bolton is one who if he hits form can average 95 and put himself in the conversation. He'll be unique and priced at 80 I think he's one you can punt on.


Tim English ($609k RUC/FWD BE 68)

Top 50 Ownership: 0%

Priced At: 84


With Martin out indefinitely with a groin issue, English has assumed the number 1 ruck role at the dogs. English is a talent and whilst he hasn't played big ruck minutes this season he's certainly showed in the past he can score in this role. Since playing solo ruck English has produced some decent numbers including a ceiling score of 122. I expect English to be 90+ for the remainder of the year and therefore I think he's a cheaper option to consider.


Tarryn Thomas ($600k MID/FWD BE 51)

Top 50 Ownership: 4%

Priced At: 82


Wowsers! TT made a statement on the weekend. 64 points at QT is beyond elite. This kid is a talent and has assumed greater responsibility through the middle this year. Cunnington out last round saw Thomas spend 20% more time in the middle which could potentially drop when Cunnington returns this week. North does have some tougher games to finish the season which is also something to consider. I think TT will be solid for the remainder of the year and he's one amongst the pool of players putting their hand up for a top 6 spot. I personally have others ahead but they're all very tight.


Jack Martin ($472k FWD BE 48)

Top 50 Ownership: 0%

Priced At: 65


This is one for those who are really struggling. If you've got multiple rookies on field or need to take a huge risk to generate some coin, this could be your guy. This is a very high risk/reward play and not for the feint hard. Martin did spend some time up the ground last week which saw him attend minimal CBA's at 11%. Martin has had an injury interrupted season but he's the type of player who's super important to he Blues in make one last dive at finals. Carlton have an easy run in the next few games and having hit a ceiling game of 107 last week, here's hoping he can find some confidence and put a string of games together.


Rowan Marshall ($584k RUC/FWD BE 54)

Top 50 Ownership: 8%

Priced At: 80


Looked ripe for the picking but he's been caught up in the Covid saga and will be unavailable this week.



My Best 22


I've highlighted the guys who I think are at a buy price and if you're a non-owner, now is the time to get on board.

DEF: Laird, Mills, Whitfield, Crisp, Lloyd, Mayne


MID: Miller, Macrae, Merrett, Steele, Wines, Taranto, Oliver, Walsh


RUC: Grundy, Gawn


FWD: Kelly, Dunkley, Zorko, Dangerfield, Hall, De Goey



Top Trade Targets


The criteria considered in order to build this list includes:

  • How likely are they to be best 22

  • How cheap are they/how much value. In most cases, if you can afford to, I'd spend up and get the better premium. E.g. If you have the extra cash and you already own Oliver, I would still have Adams and Guthrie ahead of Gaff but because Gaff saves you $100k I have him ahead on this list. That $100k could potentially get you another upgrade elsewhere hence why he sits higher but this will be situational for everyone.

  • Value for position - For example; Jake Lloyd is one of the only defenders who I consider to be top tier and value. For that reason he sits higher on the targets compared to others in other positions where I see more value options available.

  • Ownership - How unique are they.

This list also takes into account that you've followed my previous advice and already traded in guys such as Dangerfield. For that reason he's not amongst my top targets but if you do not yet own him then I'd be getting on board. The guys highlighted in the best 22 should be prioritized ahead of some of the other targets.

  1. Brodie Grundy

  2. Clayton Oliver

  3. Jake Lloyd

  4. Matt Kennedy

  5. Jordan De Goey

  6. Andrew Gaff


Best POD Options In No Particular Order

  • Andrew Gaff

  • Shai Bolton

  • Cam Guthrie

  • Jordan Dawson

  • Brayden Fiorini

  • Matt Kennedy

  • Tim Kelly


That's a wrap ladies and gents! My heart goes out to those with plenty of carnage to deal with. As someone who has copped the full brunt of it in recent times, I've managed to catch a break and outside of Kelly I should be able to move fluid. Hopefully I can maintain my momentum from last weeks effort and keep climbing. For those of you interested in how my side currently looks, how I scored last round and what I'm looking at trades wise, then make sure to check out the video at the top of the page. I hope this article has given you some food for thought and can help guide you in making your trade decisions. Good luck this round guys and until next time... Keep climbing up the ranks!!

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