Trade Talk and Break Evens: Round 18

With 6 rounds to go we are officially heading towards the business end. It's this point in the year where ownership and draw becomes super important. These are two things I'd be strongly considering when weighing up your options this week. For the most part the players I've included in the trade guide are more value options for those shopping on a budget. If you're shopping in defence or forward it may be wise to pay up and get to the best guys possible. For example if you don't own Laird and Mills then they are obviously targets. You do want to shop for value but at the same time it's all about getting as many best 22 players as possible now and if you have that opportunity it is likely the best move. The reason I excluded midfielders with this theory is I think there are some guys that I think can average similar to the top priced players and therefore I'd avoid paying the big bucks for guys like Miller and Steele.





What To Do With Whitfield


Trade: This is the option that makes the most sense and is what I'd be recommending to majority of people.


Hold: This is a high risk play. With no fixtures available, if GWS are to have a quick turn around it could mean Whitfield misses the 2 games under the 12 game protocol. It is unlikely but it is possible and hence why a trade makes the most sense. If you still have multiple rookies on the field than a hold could make sense. If you can get a rookie up to a premium you're effectively going to have the same amount of rookies on the field this week. However next week you'll have an extra premium if Whitfield is available. A move like this will allow you to improve your team long term. I'd only consider this move if you have more than 2 rookies remaining on field.


Guys to Consider



Taylor Adams ($757k MID BE 79)

Top 50 Ownership: 20%


Proven track record with a 3 game average of 118. Currently priced at (. ) which not only makes him underpriced but he’s likely to average similar to those top priced players. Looks to be moving great on return and he’s probably your best bet as a midfield premium option this week.

Clayton Oliver ($743k MID BE 117)

Top 50 Ownership: 12%


Hasn’t been in super form of recent times but I'm still bullish on Oliver. Copped some heavy attention from Willem Drew last week which stopped him from reaching a ceiling type score. A tag is always going to be a concern for any top player but with Petracca going huge the last 2 weeks, hopefully opposition switch their attention. Oliver is high on my targets list again and I do think he can be up with the top bracket of players for the remainder of the season.


Jordon De Goey ($634k MID/FWD BE 38)

Top 50 Ownership: 42%


Kmart no more! De Goey goes huge again. Since shifting back into the midfield we've seen what he's capable of. With Elliot back into the side and the impact he's having through the midfield, I expect that we will see him continue in this role going forward. A lot have already jumped on and he's not priced as enticingly now but I do think he's still a top option.


Christian Salem ($698k DEF BE 68)

Top 50 Ownership: 0%


Keeps getting it done, has a huge ceiling and low ownership. Ticks a lot of boxes and in his current form could make up that last position as a top 6 defender. At the price I'd prefer to go with Lloyd as he does have a nice run to finish the season and has the runs on the board, Salem is a good unique option but there is limited value at the price.


Brodie Grundy ($799k RUC BE 102)

Top 50 Ownership: 76%


Did what we expected he would do against a side with no ruck man. Chol was helpless and as a result, Grundy did as he pleased. As I've mentioned the last few weeks, Grundy is capable of pumping these ceiling type scores on a regular basis as well as providing you with a genuine captain option. Last weekend was a reminder that this man is essential as soon as possible. If you do not own yet I'd be making it a priority.


Mathew Kennedy ($562k MID/FWD BE 59)

Top 50 Ownership: 12%


As someone who brought in Kennedy last week, I genuinely do think his game on the weekend was good. A score of 74 would suggest otherwise but he was still getting midfield rotations and finding the right positions. Missed out on a few close call tackles and could have easily scored 90. His next few matchups are very soft and coming in much cheaper than some of these other "riskier" types I do still think he's worth a look.


Rowan Marshall ($562k FWD/RUC BE 90)

Top 50 Ownership: 4%


Has always spent more time as a forward but it looks like he's anchored himself in that position since returning from injury. His past seasons suggest he can score well enough to put him in calculation but his TOG numbers have been quite low. He did see a decent bump on the weekend but 71% is still too low to consider for mine. If he can push his way back up to 80+ he could be worth a look but I probably wouldn't be considering him for now.


Nat Fyfe ($623k MID/FWD BE 97)

Top 50 Ownership: 0%


Fyfe was fantastic on the weekend. Whether it was his 200th that evoked a class performance or not, I'm not sure but he looked in good order and unrestricted by his shoulder. In true Fyfe fashion, what was a super performance could only translate into 108 points. This seems to be close to the upper range of Fyfe's capabilities and therefore he'd need to replicate this kind of form going forward. With Freo now in the conversation for finals I think we can expect Fyfe to lift and give his team every chance possible. He's arguably 10 points underpriced and in the conversation for top 6 so I think he's one worth taking a punt on at his current price.

Sam Walsh ($796k MID BE 90)

Top 50 Ownership: 76%


It's no secret that this kid is crazy good. I expect Walsh to have 120+ capabilities in the near future but that's a conversation for next year. He is highly owned and his recent form may attract opposition attention. That being said, he does have a lovely run of games coming up and I expect his scoring to be top tier. He's a premium option for those with a bit of coin. I'd rather go with one of the cheaper more unique options in Adams, Oliver or Neale.


Lachie Neale ($738k MID BE 93)

Top 50 Ownership: 10%


When all signs pointed to Neale being back to his best he goes and injures his calf missing a week. On return from injury he picked up where he left off. No change in TOG and another 100+ score indicates that he should be good to go from here. I'd expect his output to be around that 110 mark and therefore he's underpriced with low ownership. He also has a nice run of games. There's a lot of positives with Neale but I do still have him slightly behind Adams and Oliver due to his recent injury.


Jack Bowes ($552k DEF BE 63)

Top 50 Ownership: 2%


Has taken a while to get back to form since returning from injury but back to back 90+ scores are encouraging signs. Bowes was elite at the start of the year but he does seem to be playing roughly 10% less game time since his return. He's also lost majority of the kick in role he had at the start of the year. For these reasons I don't expect Bowes to score like he did at the start of the year. I think somewhere between 80-90 is where he'll be. If he's all you can get to in getting a rookie off the field, then I'd consider him but outside of that I don't think he's the best option despite the cheap price tag.


Jake Lloyd ($673k DEF BE 95)

Top 50 Ownership: 10%


Came off the ground last week after suffering a knock. Lloyd hasn't been 100% in my eyes and has had a slightly different role this year. Despite this, Sydney do have a good run after this week and Lloyd does have the capability of averaging 105 comfortably having average 110+ in the past. He comes in priced at 92 and I think he'll be 100+ from here. He's probably my favorite of the cheaper defender premiums.


Cam Guthrie ($756k MID BE 138)

Top 50 Ownership: 0%


Certainly an interesting one. Before his setback he was flying posting a 5 game average of 122. He certainly has the ceiling despite him playing low minutes. His TOG is low but it's no lower than the start of the year and he's now close to a buy price. He has a high BE of 138 so it's likely he drops further but you could go early if you want a super POD. 138 is attainable by his standards. Priced at 103 he's value regardless.


Andrew Gaff ($656k MID BE 115)

Top 50 Ownership: 4%


Andrew Gaff has been useless this year but he does have a solid track record of fantasy scoring. Gaff hasn't managed a 100+ score now in 6 matches which is obviously a huge concern. With West Coast being beyond poor in recent times and now struggling for a finals spot, you'd think now is the time for their leaders to step up. They have some easy matchups in the next few weeks and therefore I expect these types to lift. He's priced at 89 and has gone 110+ the last 3 years. Whilst I don't think he'll post those types of numbers I do think he is value.


Jake Stringer ($628k MID/FWD BE 50)

Top 50 Ownership: 6%


The role is their and the scoring has followed. All the hype is around De Goey and rightfully so but Stringer has been attending more CBA's and is equally getting it done. Langford now out for a few weeks helps his cause and based off recent form you have to mount a case for Stringer. Lower ownership than De Goey could be something to consider if you're trying to split them.


Jordon Ridley ($589k DEF BE 68)

Top 50 Ownership: 36%


Ridley's form of recent has been solid. It was great to see him pump triple figures last week whilst taking 6 of their 8 kick ins (75%). His role looks more reminiscent of his role at the start of the year and comes in sub $600k. He's not a flashy, exciting type but he will be solid for the remainder of the year. I'd feel safer with Ridley over Bowes if you're shopping in this price bracket.


Tim Kelly ($568k MID BE 73)

Top 50 Ownership: 0%


Was in the targets last week and all signs pointed to him being an option again but recent news has emerged that he may have tweaked his knee again and left training early on Wednesday. These aren't good signs, I expect Kelly to miss this week now and therefore he's not an option but even if he is named I'd be wary and probably looking elsewhere now. It sucks as he was looking like a great cheap value option.


Noah Anderson ($513k MID BE 91)

Top 50 Ownership: 0%


Very sneaky option. Could return this week and with Greenwood out there is opportunity inside. Anderson has displayed scoring ability this year despite being inconsistent. His draw sucks and he is coming back from injury. He's also no guarantee to walk straight into an inside midfield role. It's a very high risk play but he is also $513k and could be 90+ if you're lucky.


Josh Dunkley ($823k MID/FWD BE 108)

Top 50 Ownership: 0%


Looks likely to return this week and having scored 100 in his last game his BE isn't even that high. His price is ridiculous but he is a top forward and he's unlikely to drop much. With 5 rounds Dunkley could be a super POD and someone you could jump on early. You're taking a risk with game time and role and therefore it's obviously safer to watch at least 1 game from him but sometimes you need to risk it for the biscuit.


Jayden Short (690k DEF BE 97)

Top 50 Ownership: 36%


With Houli out of the side, Short looks like he's returned to being the main rebounder for the Tiges. He also took 8 of their 9 kick ins last week. Houli out is big for Short and as a result I expect his output to increase at least 5-10 points. His recent form has been pretty solid and I expect he'll be high 90's pushing that 100 mark the rest of the way. Houli out puts Short in top 6 calculations but he does have higher ownership and isn't huge value. I'd have Lloyd and some others ahead of him but he's someone you could look at.


Top Targets


  1. Brodie Grundy

  2. Jordon De Goey

  3. Taylor Adams

  4. Clayton Oliver

  5. Lachie Neale

  6. Jake Lloyd


My Best 22


DEF: Laird Mills Crisp Hall Salem Lloyd


MID: Touk Macrae Merrett Steele Titch Parish Adams Walsh


RUC: Grundy Gawn

FWD: Kelly Dunkley Zorko Dangerfield Darcy De Goey



Summary

  • Rookies off field if you have any left we saw last week that even some of the better ones are capable of ruining your round (Amartey (38) and Robertson (27))

  • Maximize points on field by weighing up your trade scenarios and the points gained from each one.

  • If you can get to a best 22 player do it, if not get the next best available. I wouldn't be chasing guys at this stage who aren't going to be around the mark.

  • Now is the time to start getting a bit more creative and taking some risks, ownership along with ceiling and fixture are important factors when trading now.


As always I hope this guide has helped do just that and guide you in your trades this round. With only 6 rounds left make sure to have fun and enjoy the rest of the year as before you know it we'll all be waiting months for next season. Good luck this week guys and until next time... Keep climbing up the ranks!






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