Trade Talk and Break Evens: Round 17

Yo Yo peoples! We're back with the trade guide heading into round 17. With plenty of injury carnage last week, some were limited in what they could do but it seems that those who took the risky route got rewarded despite plenty of big name premiums hitting some huge ceiling scores.


At this stage of the game ownership is key in giving your side the ability to pull rank and therefore I've included the ownership of all players in this article to help guide you in making an educated decision.


As I've stated in recent trade guides you should be trying to maximize points on field and therefore you should be weighing up the point gain from each trade scenario and going with what gains you the most.

DEFENDERS


Christian Salem ($668k DEF | Priced at 90)

Top 50 Ownership: 0%


Has had a career best season and has been someone who has featured in the trade guide at various stages. He's the clear number 1 rebounder for the Dees and controls a majority of ball that comes out of defence. As a result, Salem is able to produce ceiling scores up there with the best defenders but he’s also quite damaging and susceptible to opposition attention. With Oliver and Petracca proving quite difficult to shut down, if opposition were to run a tag I feel like they’d likely go to Salem. He is in great form and he is unique so he’s amongst the raffle for a top 6 defender and someone you could consider as a smoky.


Chris Mayne ($727k MID/DEF | Priced at 98)

Top 50 Ownership: 0%


Whilst the majority of defence is set in stone that 6th spot is still up for grabs. This man since moving down back has been fantastic. His role looks safe and consistent and he’s been able to consistently put up 100+ scores. He has no ownership and despite the high price tag I do believe he’s probably a top 6 defender. The value is very marginal at the price but at this stage the aim should be targeting top 22 guys and I think we’ve seen enough evidence to suggest Mayne is that. Good POD premium option.


Jake Lloyd ($672k DEF | Priced at 91)

Top 50 Ownership: 10%


Probably not one I would buy this week but he’s certainly interesting me at the price. He does have two relatively tough games coming up but his next 5 to finish the season are great. Horse did say pre bye that he was playing sore and his 71% TOG last week might be an indication that he’s still not quite right. Can produce top scores for a defender and with unique ownership I’d be monitoring closely.


Shannon Hurn ($671k DEF | Priced at 91)

Top 50 Ownership: 0%


Having been featured for weeks now, Hurn is finally starting to get some recognition amongst the Fantasy community. Hurn has flown under the radar all season mainly for the fact that he's 33 and injury/rest prone. I'll state it again but excluding Hurn's injury affected score he's posted an average of 101 this season. This type of scoring would put him inside that top 6 defenders and with no ownership he could certainly be a smoky. The injury risk and potential for a rest will always be there and is something that has to be strongly considered. These reasons are why I personally haven't jumped on board yet and with some easy matchups maybe we see a rest soon? High risk and for that reason I wouldn't be doing it but you can't argue with his scoring this year.


Nic Newman ($595k DEF | Priced at 81)

Top 50 Ownership: 8%


All signs pointed to a big one and for those who jumped on, they were rewarded with a huge score of 115. Newman has a fantasy game about him so he should be able to put up respectable numbers for the remainder of the season. Geelong this week along with Williams back (likely negatively effects him) makes him less attractive this week than last week in my opinion. I do still think he’s an option but I wouldn’t be expecting much more than a 90 average. He's probably the best option out of the "cheaper" defender bunch.


Zac Williams ($539k DEF | Priced at 73)

Top 50 Ownership: 2%


A bloke who everyone thought was a “must have” to start the season has largely been irrelevant all year and for those who have owned him have been burnt quite badly. Since moving back to defence his scoring has been significantly better although he has still been inconsistent. He’s certainly better than the 73 he’s priced at and with Docherty now gone you’d think it only benefits a bloke like Williams. I’d prefer to see what the dynamic looks like between him, Newman and Saad this week before jumping on but he could be a good cheap option to consider.


Liam Duggan ($559k MID/DEF | Priced at 76)

Top 50 Ownership: 0%


Has shown fantasy ability in the past but there’s no midfield role anymore and he’s only really discounted 12 points on his career best. coming back from injury there are probably safer bets although he is getting cheap. Not one I’d consider with much conviction but he does have a favorable fixture and he won’t be on many peoples radar if any at all.


MIDFIELDERS


Clayton Oliver ($756k MID | Priced at 102)

Top 50 Ownership: 4%


I've mentioned him the last couple of rounds but the time is now. Oliver is ripe for the picking and with the Dee's looking to lock up a top 2 spot, Oliver should be in for a big finish. Oliver could be 115+ for the rest of the season if he can hit some ceiling games. With an ownership of just 4% inside the top 50 he's the perfect POD for those looking to gain some rank. Other than being unique, Oliver comes in priced at 102 which presents great value and therefore saves you plenty of cash when compared to the top priced premiums such as Touk, Parish etc...


Taylor Adams ($730k MID | Priced at 99)

Top 50 Ownership: 18%


Back to back tons on return for this fantasy stud. There is no doubting Adam's when it comes to fantasy ability, his durability is where the queries are. Surprisingly, he's not as unique as Oliver with an ownership of 18% within the top 50 coaches. His TOG and role have been exactly what we could have wished for on return and therefore at the price he's a steal. If you can get past the injury risk, he's a top target. I'd probably have him slightly behind Oliver due to the injury factor but nonetheless I can see Adams being 110+ from here.


Andrew Gaff ($678k MID | Priced at 92)

Top 50 Ownership: 4%


Gaff has traditionally been of fantasy relevance in the past despite him playing a predominantly outside role. Gaff has produced an average of 110 over the last 3 years. This year Gaff has been down significantly, currently sitting at an average of 97. This may be due to West Coast being undermanned through the middle or the fact he's had to play more inside at times which doesn't suit his play style. With a full midfield available now you'd think Gaff would thrive on the outside but having not scored a ton in 5 weeks is certainly a concern. Missing last week with a hand injury may be the reason for his poor form of recent times. Based on previous years he's got upside but I'd probably rather go with Yeo or Kelly at a cheaper price.


Elliot Yeo ($605k MID | Priced at 82)

Top 50 Ownership: 0%


As a West Coast supporter I can be the first to tell you that Yeo is an absolute Bull. In a team that can be weak as piss when the heat gets turned on, Yeo is arguably our most important player. West Coast are scrambling at the minute and therefore if they are to make finals they'll need a big lift from their stars. The issue with Yeo has been the management of his minutes but in saying that we have seen his TOG increase every week since returning. A season high of 79% last week are great signs and you would expect he would stay around this 80% mark at least for the remainder of the season. The Eagles have a dream run which should be good for Fantasy numbers but could also present as a reason to rest him. West Coast need wins and I don't think they are in a position to pull these strings. Yeo should be solid to finish the year.


Tim Kelly ($567k MID | Priced at 77)

Top 50 Ownership: 0%


Another West Coast A grader returning from injury. After a poor showing in his first game back Kelly was back to his usual self posting a score of 97 last week. Whilst Kelly is more likely to receive opposition attention, he could slide under the radar with a full host of names back in that midfield. I've never been a huge fan of Kelly but we've also never been able to get him this cheap. He should be at least 95 to finish the year so he's a great upgrade option if you're getting your last rookie off field. He's also cheap enough that you could potentially downgrade another premium to him for no point loss in order to upgrade elsewhere. I think at the price he has the be a top target although if you do have the cash to get to an Adams or Oliver type I'd be going in that direction for sure.


Matt Rowell ($442k MID | Priced at 60)

Top 50 Ownership: 6%


Has been rusty since returning but looks like he is building into things. Similar to Yeo, he has increased his TOG every game since returning, reaching a peak of 85% last week. Whilst the scoring hasn't been there the role and TOG is and I expect him to be better in the run home. He's as cheap as chips and can be attained by an easy 50k-100k rookie upgrade. If he's all you can achieve to get that last rookie off field I don't think he's the worst bet. Could be worth a crack.


FORWARDS


Patrick Dangerfield ($671k MID/FWD | Priced at 91)

Top 50 Ownership: 46%


About time Paddy! As someone who took the plunge on Danger first game back and has been bitterly disappointed, it was nice to finally receive some reward. High in the targets last week and after a huge 149 last week I'd assume he'd be the most targeted player this week. Regardless of the fact he will see a huge spike in ownership, Danger is just too cheap not to have. It's coming to the business end of the season and with the Cats fighting for a top 4 spot, Paddy should be 110+ from here. Get on board!


Scott Pendlebury ($625k MID/FWD | Priced at 85)

Top 50 Ownership: 78%


Highly owned as plenty of coaches have jumped on board the last few weeks. At this stage of the competition if you're trying to gain rank you really want to be targeting unique players. That being said, Pendles is so cheap priced at 85. He's playing a fulltime midfield role and as a result he should be 95-100 making him a top 6 forward. He's a no brainer at the price and still worth having if you're a non-owner.


Jordan De Goey ($574k FWD | Priced at 78)

Top 50 Ownership: 10%


What was a failed picked at the start of the proven is proving that we were on the right track and that he does have it in him when playing heavy midfield minutes. It was a super risky pick last week as we weren't sure how he was going to fit in the side with a new coach and Taylor Adams occupying a midfield space. It looks like De Goey is holding down enough midfield time and going forward could average 90+ in this role. Unfortunately you're paying a fair chunk more to get on board this week but I think he's legit and an option to target in the forward line this week.


Nat Fyfe ($629k MID/FWD | Priced at 85)

Top 50 Ownership: 0%


Not an option now and probably not an option at all for the remainder of the season. The shoulder is obviously an issue and will probably hinder him from being that 95 type for the remainder of the season. He did play large midfield minutes on the weekend and if it looks like he can get back to those heights he could be an option in a couple weeks at a sub $600k price tag. Especially if Freo look like they could make finals.


Jake Stringer ($582k FWD | Priced at 82)

Top 50 Ownership: 6%


Very similar to the De Goey situation. I'd have De Goey slightly ahead as with Shiel to come back the risk factor here is slightly higher. Stringer has also never shown ability in the past where as De Goey has to some extent. I'd be passing on Stringer now at the price but if you got on board last week ride that train baby.


Matt Kennedy ($538k MID/FWD | Priced at 73)

Top 50 Ownership: 4%


Has put together 3 solid scores now and having seen a season high CBA rat