Trade Talk and Break Evens: Round 16

What's up homies! Here's the round 16 trade guide (and before the first game this week). In all seriousness, we are getting to the business end and with plenty of sides looking to have 1 or no rookies on field, this is the time to be upgrading those underperformers up to those top notch premos.

As explained in last weeks article, it's all about points on field at this stage and therefore getting rookies off field may not be the best moves in some cases. Ideally you want to get rookies off field but if you can get an underperformer up to a big dog you may actually gain more points. Take these two scenarios for example:

Poulter (60) --> Pendlebury (95) = 35 point gain

Hind (75) --> Grundy (120) = 45 point gain

Therefore, it may pay to trade Hind over Poulter in this situation. This is just an example but this theory should be applied to your own side and potential moves you're looking at to justify which options are the best.

Straight into the juicy stuff, these are the guys I like this round and or are hot names in the community at the moment.

Taylor Adams ($723k MID BE 108)

Adams is a bloke who has shown fantasy royalty in the past. This is a guy who is capable of pushing a 115 average and on his day is capable of producing huge ceiling scores. This year guys coming back from injury have struggled and therefore last week I wasn't very bullish on what Adams would be able to produce for the remainder of the year. Having seen his first up performance I've flipped on my original stance and now have Adams as one of the top targets this week. Adams attended 87% of CBA's for the pies at a season high of 85% TOG. This squashes any fitness queries and if this is the sort of role/TOG we see going forward I expect Adams to average 110+. Low ownership due to coming back from injury and he's certainly one I'm high on.

Lachie Neale ($729k MID BE 110)

What a gallant effort from this bloke to keep going last week. Absolutely crunched in what looked like it could be season ending, getting tagged up the shithouse and the bloke manages to climb back from 21 at HT to produce a score of 106. Back to back tons for Neale which certainly suggests he's back in form and at a cheaper price tag (similar to Adams) could end up producing scores similar to the top priced guys, hence why he's up there in the targets again this week. The only query here is that shoulder and whilst Fagan seemed bullish he would be fine having played out the game last weekend, they do only have the crows this week which screams late withdrawal! Certainly something to consider. Nonetheless, I think he's a great option if you have a backup plan in case he doesn't get up.

Tom Mitchell ($828k MID BE 92)

The pig is back! Having drawn some criticism prior to the bye for his inconsistent scoring nature and possible change in role, Mitchell has proven the haters wrong posting 3 huge scores post bye. Titch is a genuine fantasy beast and whilst he's highly owned by the top ranked sides he could be the highest scoring player to finish the season. If you do not own he's certainly worth bringing in and one of the top priced guys I would actually pay up for.

Zach Merrett ($815k MID BE 97)

Highly rated amongst the top targets last week and those who jumped on board would be well impressed with a season high score of 153. It was a matter of time before Merrett went bang! The bloke has piggish tendencies and having had a consistent but nothing special season so far the writing was on the wall sooner rather than later. If you don't own at this stage than this is probably not the week to bring him in as they do play the Cats and the likelihood he gets attention from O'Connor is quite high after last weeks performance. Despite this he is a must have at some point and someone you should have a plan on bringing in sooner rather than later.

Lachie Whitfield ($772k MID/DEF BE 100)

I won't say much here other than if you don't own him you need him. I've been harping on about bringing in Whitfield for weeks now. He's highly owned now but he does have the highest ceiling out of any defender and you won't want to be a non-owner when he pumps out a 140+ score.

Brodie Grundy ($791k RUC BE 124)

Potentially the number 1 target this week but certainly a must over the next two weeks. The earlier you can get Grundy back the better. He's got a huge ceiling and coming back from injury he's still relatively unique. He's a must have top 2 ruck and I'd be making him a priority. Despite this it's all about points on field at this stage and if you have ROB at R2 for example, it may only be a 20-30 point upgrade to get to Grundy. Therefore, you may be better spending those funds elsewhere e.g. Phillips --> Adams which could potentially be 40 points. This is just something to consider. If you have DPP within your ruck and can trade a forward e.g. Hind, Phillips, Poulter etc.. and get to Grundy then that is the clear trade path I would be taking.

Patrick Dangerfield ($642k MID/FWD BE 111)

The time is now to jump on Dangerfield! Danger is a beast and back to playing game time levels reminiscent of the past. Up 10% since his first game back and I expect he stays around that mid 80's mark for the rest of the year. He's unique and despite his lower CBA usage I think he'll only improve as the year goes on. I see Dangerfield being 100+ for sure and at the price he's a steal.

Dayne Zorko ($806k MID/FWD BE 86)

Absolutely huge last week and as per usual is a name highly talked about this week as a result. People love to see a good score and therefore can result in what we call "score chasing". Whilst Zorko's numbers have been huge over the last 5 weeks (122.4 L5 Avg) I'm not sure how sustainable this is and expect his output to be more close to that 105-110 mark from here on out. Brisbane are flying at the moment and with a super favorable fixture I can certainly see why people are enticed. He's certainly a top tier forward, with a huge ceiling and low ownership so he ticks plenty of boxes. If you're willing to pay the price you won't be disappointed and he'll serve as a great unique for you but I think I'd rather go with Dangerfield at $160k cheaper who in my opinion likely averages similar.

Scott Pendlebury ($603k MID/FWD BE 74)

The queries that some had of Pendles role being uncertain due to a new coach were thrown out the window on the weekend. Pendles recorded a team high CBA attendance rate of 90% of the weekend and whilst he did see a huge ownership spike (and will likely be highly targeted again this week) I think the value is there and he's a great premium option for those shopping on a budget.

Clayton Oliver ($775k MID BE 147)

Oliver is one of those who is struggling for form at the moment. He's actually been quite good from a footy perspective but he just hasn't been getting it done from a fantasy sense. A Last 3 game average of 86.3 proves my point. Oliver is a proven fantasy jet with a high ceiling showcased by his huge 155 scored in round 10. These are the types of players I like to target and at his price now he's getting very enticing. He does have a high BE of 147 and the potential of getting tagged by De Boer this week (Personally I don't think he will) therefore he's probably not a buy this week. He's one I'm very keen on though and someone who should be in your near future trade plans.

Jack Crisp ($745k MID/DEF BE 115)

Has played predominately midfield all year and as a result has seen a point increase which see's him be a genuine 110 player this year. In my opinion he's in the same bracket as Laird, Mills and Whitfield and comes with a more unique ownership. With Adams back now, if the Pies are to use De Goey through the middle we could see Crisp rotated more through half back but I doubt this will be the case. I expect Crisp to maintain high midfield exposure and therefore makes him a great defensive target.

Stephen Coniglio ($670k MID BE 154)

Looks like he could potentially return this week. I'm thinking we could see him used more forward and he's most likely eased into things like we've seen with Dangerfield coming back from a similar injury. I wouldn't be jumping on straight away but if he has a nice role he's shown in the past he can score and he could be one to pick up cheap later in the season. Keep on the watch list.

Elliot Yeo ($594k MID BE 109)

Looks like he's seeing more minutes on the park. Ideally you'd want to see 80%+ TOG from Yeo but the fact he's moved up into the mid 70's range from low 60's is certainly encouraging. Scored poorly last week but West Coast in general were poor against tough opposition. He's probably one for next season at this stage but due to his price tag he could be worth a go if you're strapped for cash.

Shannon Hurn ($642k DEF BE 60)

I've spoke about him a couple times now and he's certainly one that's flying under the radar. On track to have a career high season despite being 33 years of age. The age and the injury history are the biggest risk factors here but he's scoring on par with the best and a fraction of the price. Averaging 101.5 if you exclude his injury affected score, Hurn could be a play for those coaches not shy of taking a risk.

Bailey Smith ($575k MID BE 72)

Sometimes I wonder what goes through Bevo's head. When all looked clear that Smith would head into a midfield role he gets no CBA's, then out of nowhere he's up to 74% and scoring up to his potential. Bailey was terrific on the weekend with 127 points but it's hard to trust Bevo. It is encouraging that the dogs did only go with the 4 midfield rotation set up and if this is to continue Bailey could be around the 100 mark for the rest of the year. I'd be waiting a week to see if his role is the same this weekend and then potentially taking a punt but the trust factor here is low.

Jordon Ridley ($566 DEF BE 74)

Has certainly been underwhelming for those who jumped on thinking he was value. At this point of the competition I'd prefer to go up to a genuine top 6 contender but at $566k he's not the worst option if that's all you can get to. Has displayed some recent form scoring 87 and 90 since the bye and looking more like his former self at the start of the year. I can see Ridley being around this 90 mark for the remainder of the year so he's certainly cheap priced at 78.

Nick Haynes ($556k DEF BE 43)

Haynes is one I almost jumped on during the byes at 445k. He's now 545k and making me look stupider by the week. In saying that I still believe that despite his recent scoring I still think Haynes will be 80-85. He's relying on double figure marks each week to get to 90-100 and I don't think this is sustainable long term. Although he has a low breakeven I don't think he's an option now at the price and if shopping around this price range I'd probably be more inclined to go with Ridley (especially as heaps have jumped on Haynes the last couple weeks).

Dion Prestia ($560k MID BE 90)

Dion has proved in the past he can be a 95-100 guy which at the price currently is super value. The only issue is his injury history and a big issue it is. His return game was quite good attending a high volume of CBA's with normal levels of game time for his standard. I'd wait another week to see how he goes. Prestia, Yeo and Smith are all cheap and if you're really desperate I suggest waiting a week and taking a punt on one of these next week. Could be an okay move if you're getting your last rookie off the field up to one of these types.

Jordon De Goey ($515k FWD BE 34)

Prior to his suspension I was actually considering De Goey as an option. He'll be talked about this week and there will no doubt be some that get on board but I just don't see him being a viable option. Increased midfield minutes has seen his scoring increased but with a new coach along with Taylor Adams coming in and playing big midfield minutes, I think it's more likely we see De Goey play in a forward role. While I do think he's value regardless he's not someone you want in your side come the end of the year and for that reason I'd be avoiding him.

Jake Stringer ($526k FWD BE 27)

Very similar to De Goey although I do think his midfield role is more stable. The bombers have trialed him in high amounts and it's worked. Essendon have limited midfield depth and Stringer is playing some career best footy. I did throw his name out as a wild card last week and now he's 40k more expensive it does make him less appealing. Dylan Shiel back could change his role significantly and therefore is something to consider. Personally I wouldn't be doing it but I probably like him slightly more than De Goey.

Jake Lloyd ($693k DEF BE 136)

Many are turned off by Lloyd and a 57 on the weekend doesn't help his cause but this is one I'm quite interested. When interest in the community is low it's usually a good time to buy as if the tide changes you'll be the one who reaps the benefits first. Excluding last weeks score Lloyd has been solid this year (below his lofty standards though). We know he's capable and while his role is slightly different he can still put up triple figures. With a high BE and West Coast, Bulldogs and Giants in his next 3 now probably isn't the time to buy, but his last 5 games of the season are super and he should be at a price close enough to $650k. I'd be buying then.

There's a couple names I haven't mentioned this week due to them being highly featured in previous trade talk articles. If I've mentioned them recently then it's likely that they are still of interest and a possible target. As for my top targets this week these are the guys I'd be looking at:

  1. Brodie Grundy

  2. Lachie Whitfield

  3. Tom Mitchell

  4. Taylor Adams

  5. Patrick Dangerfield

  6. Lachie Neale

  7. Scott Pendlebury

Although these are my top targets this week, most names mentioned in this article are genuine targets and therefore it's going to come down to budget and what you're able to do with your side.

As mentioned in other recent trade articles, when downgrading to generate cash to upgrade, you should always go down to the guy that allows you to get the best possible upgrade for your side. For example: If you can only get to a Prestia, Yeo, Smith type by downgrading to Sharp but you can get to a Dangerfield type by downgrading to Connolly, then I'd go with the later option everyday of the week. At this stage you should have limited rookies on field and with the ability to loophole you should be able to get a decent score from the guys you already have. Therefore, the need to pay up for rookies at this stage is almost non-existent along with the fact that cash generation is less important at this stage with most teams nearing a complete side.

For those interested in my trades this week, I'm looking to trade:

Koschitzke --> Connolly

Phillips --> Adams

I'll be doing this instead of getting Grundy as I think the points difference of Phillips to Adams is greater than the points difference between ROB and Grundy.

As usual guys, I hope this has helped enlighten you and your plans at the trade table this round. Here's hoping to a solid round after some bad luck and poor scores from myself. Good luck to everyone reading this and until next time... keep climbing up the ranks!

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