Trade Talk and Break Evens: Round 14

For those interested in how my side faired last week you can check out the video below. I think the thumbnail explains it all really... I also present a lot of my trade thoughts in video format if you prefer to sit back and watch rather than read.

In what looks to be the trickiest bye to navigate, most coaches look to be struggling to field 18 this week. For those who have planned well you should be rewarded with a nice climb in rank this week.

With limited rookies available it may be time to get creative when looking to generate cash. If you do not own Jai Newcombe then he's the obvious and a must get this week. If you're not struggling for players this week (unlikely) then you could look to downgrade to guys such as Amartey and Foley although there is no guarantee they come back post bye and they do come with a little bit of a price tag (I'm not a huge fan of this move). At this stage it looks to be a wait and see on the rookie front so keep an eye when teams drop. *Briggs and Madden both named and are downgrade targets*

I'm expecting there to be limited rookie options this week and therefore like I stated earlier you may have to get creative with your trades. If you have high value premiums or others who are under performing it may be a good idea to trade down to an underpriced type. As an example I took this kind of a risk last week trading Parish to Whitfield and although I didn't get rewarded last week I do think long term they can average similar and that move generated me $130k for another upgrade. Scenarios this week could be trading one of these high value guys down to a Lachie Neale type and or trading down to a Houston or Haynes. You may not lose many points out of this (if any at all) and it will give you the funds to upgrade elsewhere. This is what I'd be looking to do if we are limited with rookies come teams.

Similar to last week I'll split this article into guys who I think can be targeted now, guys you should keep an eye on and guys to target post the round 14 bye. It's important to consider targets you would like to bring in post bye so you can try and manage your available bank this week in order to make those future moves happen.

With many sides looking to scrape 18 players this week now is the time you want to be offloading these "fattened" cash cows such as Jordon, Byrnes, Rowe etc... I'd even offload Poulter early if it means fielding 18. If you're really struggling for numbers I don't mind off loading Harmes and Heeney and If you have a high ownership/under performing premium on the bye this week e.g. Andrew Gaff, it could potentially pay to downgrade to an under priced premium guy to generate cash and numbers.

Trade Targets This Week

Dan Houston ($571k MID/DEF)

BE: 75

Priced At: 80

Projected Average 90-100

Not much to say here. Was one of the best targets last week and nothing has changed. Has plenty of upside at his current price. May not be a top 6 defender but he's certainly close enough and could be a season long keeper. At the price you may be able to downgrade an underperforming premium to him in order to generate some cash. Regardless he's a high priority target this week for those non-owners.

Josh Kelly ($777k MID/FWD)

BE: 78

Priced At: 109

Projected Average: 115

Similar to Houston in regards to being a prime target last week. Although he's expensive now and the value isn't there like it was a few weeks ago I still think despite the high ownership he's a must have and someone I would be getting this week if you don't own him.

Aaron Hall ($787k DEF/FWD)

BE: 85

Priced At: 110

Projected Average: 115

What a revelation this man has been this year. Six straight scores of 100+ with five of those being 120+. Although he's getting expensive he has a 5 game average of 123 and it's hard seeing him drop off too much. I expect him to maintain a 115 average at least from this point forward and with the type of ceiling he has he's a must have in my opinion. He doesn't look to be getting cheaper anytime soon so I'd get on board now if you don't own.

Lachie Whitfield ($745k DEF/MID)

BE: 117

Priced At: 104

Projected Average: 112

In my opinion Whitfield could be the number 1 defender from this point forward. A poor score last week may look like a slight turn off for some and whilst he didn't look his best I still wouldn't hold any concern. Whitfield has a ceiling unrivaled by anyone and you don't want to be a non owner when he does go big.

Nick Haynes ($471k DEF)

BE: 35

Priced At: 66

Projected Average: 82

GWS have a near full strength side again and as a result Haynes looks to have found a place back in his old intercept role. It looks like Haynes has hit some form again and having seen him average mid to high 80's last year I think it's safe to assume he can average at least 80 for the rest of the year. Currently priced at 66, Haynes provides great value and if he does manage to average that 85-90 then he could be worth picking up despite the fact I don't think he's a keeper. With cash generation looking tricky this week, Haynes could be an option to grab some coin. For example a trade such as Harmes to Haynes generates $100k with arguably no point decrease.

Lachie Neale ($729k MID)

BE: 127

Priced At: 102

Projected Average: 110

I expect Neale to be highly targeted this week and for good reasons. He's one of the better value premiums available this week. Despite the fact I expect his ownership to spike this week I still think he's a great option. There are slight queries of a potential tag over the coming weeks but with so many guys looking like great buys in the coming weeks (Duncan, Danger, Grundy...) and the fact we go back to 2 trades it may be hard to get on board if you decide to wait. As a result I'm a fan of going early and if you can afford him and or are looking for a midfielder, this looks like one of the better plays.

Ollie Wines ($783k MID) BE: 100

Priced At: 110

Projected Average: 110

This bloke was in my side all of last week until I decided last minute to jump on board Dangerfield.... A 70 point swing certainly hurt and at this stage I'd much rather have Wines. That being said it's hard to suggest jumping on board now with some other round 13 guys available for selection. The argument was much stronger last week due to the fact he would play through the next two weeks. I expect his average from this point on to be around where he's priced at and while he could be a great unique I think I'd rather save some coin and go with Neale and or chase some other options. He hasn't demonstrated a great ceiling this season which is something I consider to be quite important going into the back end of the season.

Jarryd Lyons ($813k MID)

BE: 134

Priced At: 114

Projected Average: 113

Lyons is one of those guys who consistently goes under the radar. This bloke is a beast and whilst Neale has now returned I can't see it having a negative impact on Lyons scoring. The Lions have a dream run home and as a result we could well and truly see Lyons score more in the second half of the year. He is pricy but with low ownership he could be worth the punt if you're looking to pay up. I'm being conservative with my projected average but he has a ceiling, he has the great draw and if he hits some form he could be 115+. If you're looking to pay the big bucks for someone I think Lyons is a legit option.

Touk Miller ($881k MID)

BE: 113

Priced At: 124

Projected Average: 118

This bloke has been unbelievable this year. He's been on par with the best of the best and has gone to another level ceiling wise. 55% of his games this year he's produced a 130+ score. To compare this with some of the other top tier guys both Macrae and Parish have gone 130+ in 33% of games. Touk is an animal and whilst I never suggest paying top dollar for someone the fact Touk is so unique, provides a great VC/C option and has a ridiculous ceiling, I think he could be worth owning if you can afford the extortionate price. Many have asked throughout the week "Who should I get out of Touk, Macrae and Parish" I'd be going Touk due to ownership.

Lachie Hunter ($642k MID/FWD)

BE: 82

Priced At: 90

Projected Average: 99

With Treloar and Dunkley going down it was expected we would see Hunter return to a more prominent wing role. Whilst Hunter does play forward at times his wing exposure has increased and in a team like the Dogs who are pushing for a top spot in finals, I expect Hunter to receive plenty of outside ball and continue to score at a good rate. With the top 6 forwards still unclear at this point, I think Hunter is there or there about and at the price I think he's good value. One of the better forward premium targets in my opinion.

Kyle Langford ($663k MID/FWD)

BE: 63

Priced At: 93

Predicted Average: 97

Certainly an interesting option and one many will be looking at this week. He has a 3 game CBA average of 66% which is significantly up on his season average of 28%. He was attending a high volume of CBA's before the McGrath injury but due to Andy going down Langford has well and truly been consolidated in the midfield mix. A 3 game average of 113 has been a result of this and If he is to continue in this role I think he can be 100+ for the rest of the season. My main query is that Dylan Shiel is only 2-3 weeks away and whilst it may not directly effect him Devon Smith could also return this week. You'd think that with those names in the side he would still maintain some level of CBA rotation and I expect his scoring to be solid. If you don't have Hunter I would go with him first but I do still think Langford is a decent option.

Toby Greene ($637k FWD) BE 95

Priced At: 89

Projected Average: 95

GWS are close to having a full strength side again and after a lack luster start to the season find themselves in a position fighting for a finals birth. Similar to Richmond and Dustin Martin, you would think that if GWS are to make finals this bloke would need to have a big back end of the year. Toby is capable of racking up 20 disposals and kicking 5 in a match and we all know what type of ceiling numbers he can reach when used in the midfield. Last week we saw Leon inject him into the CBA's in the last quarter when the game was on the line. I don't think we can expect big midfield minutes due to the names they have fit at the moment but some are better than none and should be able to bump his average slightly. Greene will be of super low ownership so if you're trying to make ground on those top ranked sides I think he could be a great POD for the rest of the year.

Jy Simpkin ($669k MID)

BE: 69

Priced At: 93

Projected Average: 98

North are a developing side and behind Cunnington, Simpkin is their next best available midfielder. It's clear that North will continue to pursue his development as an inside mid and he should maintain high CBA usage for the remainder of the season. Recently, Simpkin has demonstrated a ceiling having pumped out a 142 and 126 in his last 4 but he's also been known to punch out some low ones. Simpkin certainly has upside as a player but as it stands I think he's too inconsistent to be worthy of a midfield slot at that price. I'd much rather find the 60k extra to get to Neale.

Daniel Rich ($710k DEF)

BE: 112

Priced At: 99

Projected Average: 101

Rich has been solid all season and continues to fly under the radar. A season low of 80 and with just two scores under 90 Rich has been a model of consistency all year. We know how damaging he can be and with a great run of games to end the season he could pump out some big ceiling type numbers if able to roam free. He takes the kick ins, he takes high volumes of marks and is capable of hitting the scoreboard. If you're looking for a premium defence option Rich could be a great POD to finish the season.

Nic Newman ($569k DEF)

BE: 82

Priced At: 79

Projected Average: 90

Has been solid since returning from injury and was on track for a big one before getting concussed. I think he can be around that 90 mark which makes him value but he's probably not a keeper and at the same time I'd prefer Houston who looks to have more stability in a side pushing for finals.

Matt Rowell ($492k MID)

BE: 121

Priced At: 69

Projected Average 90

Looked rusty last week and whilst he still attended 65% of CBA's it may take him a few weeks to find some touch again. He is very cheap but I think I prefer to wait on him.

Mitch Duncan

BE: 166

Priced At: 112

Projected Average: 115

Duncan is an animal and has a super high ceiling. Geelong are top contenders this year and I expect them to be pretty dominant in the second half of the year with Dangerfield and Guthrie coming back. Whilst the break even is ridiculously high and you'll certainly be able to get in at a cheaper price in a few weeks time, I think Duncan is a guy you can go early on. He provides a great VC/C option and if he was to put together a couple of ceiling scores he doesn't drop that much in value. I don't hate going early here.

Patrick Dangerfield

BE: 157

Priced At: 98

Projected Average: 110

*Insert Duncan comment here* Seriously though, both these guys will be super unique with many looking to wait and get on later. If they put together some good scores you could get an edge on the competition. Dangerfield is already at a good price despite the high breakeven.

Players To Keep An Eye On

Cam Gurthrie

Jordon De Goey

Elliot Yeo

Liam Duggan

Players To Target Post Bye

Christian Petracca

Andrew Gaff

Jack Crisp

Brodie Grundy

Chris Mayne

Stephen Coniglio

Luke Ryan

Scott Pendlebury

Bachar Houli

In summary you want to be maximizing numbers on field this week. This round looks to be a great opportunity to make up ground and the more players on field the better. If you need the cash going early on a Poulter, Bianco, Highmore is a completely fine play. Don't be afraid to offload these rookies early, cash generation is less important at this time of year.

In general your targets should be guys who you see being best 22 or close enough. At this time of the year its a race to get a full team of premiums and therefore I'd be less inclined to bring in guys like Haynes and or Rowell despite them having a decent amount of upside.

These are my top 10 targets in order of preference:

  1. Josh Kelly

  2. Dan Houston

  3. Lachie Whitfield

  4. Lachie Neale

  5. Aaron Hall

  6. Mitch Duncan

  7. Patrick Dangerfield

  8. Lachie Hunter

  9. Kyle Langford

  10. Nick Haynes

I hope this has helped in guiding you with your trades this week. This looks to be a make or break round and if you've planned well you should be rewarded. Good luck this round and until next time... Keep climbing the ranks!

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