Trade Talk and Break Evens: Round 13
After weeks of planning the first round of the byes are over! Hopefully if you'd followed my advice over the last few weeks you would have got yourself into a position where you had 19-21 players and therefore scored quite nicely. This week we have some issues to deal with in regards to both the byes in general and injury. Firstly, I'll note that both West Coast and Richmond players do not have the bye this round and instead have been moved to round 14. As a result, we've been given an extra trade in round 14 to compensate. It looks like most sides will struggle in round 14 and therefore it's important to think ahead and plan for that now.
If you have either Zorko or Fyfe I think a trade makes sense. Both these guys aren't going to be available this week and then have the bye. 2 weeks off is enough to trade and I'll cover plenty of options in who you can opt to go to. Sean Darcy is the interesting one. Plenty of coaches opted to trade him in last round as a Grundy replacement. It's a cruel game this one and having gone down with a hamstring late in the fourth now provides headaches for coaches. Let me outline the options for you:
Option 1: If you don't own Gawn, it's a no brainer. You need both Gawn and Grundy and therefore this is a great opportunity to bring him in.
Option 2: Trade to Riley O'Brien. This is an option for those who already own Gawn. It looks like ROB is starting to find some form again and currently priced at 82, there is plenty of upside here. He's probably the only guy outside of Gawn I would consider (disregarding rookies). The issue I have here is that you've burnt a trade to get Darcy in, you're using one to get him to O'Brien and then you're going to have to use another one in a few weeks time to get back to Grundy. It's a lot of trades wasted and therefore a move like this while it banks you 100k odd it will slow down the progression of your side.
Option 3: Hold Darcy and bring Reeves in for cover. If you can downgrade a rookie to Reeves you can bank yourself some cash which enables you both to have cover for Darcy and get an upgrade elsewhere. I quite like this option as you're still getting an upgrade and holding Darcy means you can go straight back to Grundy post byes. It's a small step up of roughly 100k and it also saves you a trade.
Option 4: Trade Darcy for Reeves. A move like this would free up a lot of cash which could be useful. If it allows you to get two big premiums on the other end, like a Kelly + Whitfield then I'm all for it. It is a long way to get back up to Grundy though which is something you'll have to consider and plan for.
The news is that Darcy has been cleared of any hamstring damage and Freo are saying he's a chance to play. In my opinion, with his previous injury history and the fact Freo doesn't have a healthy list, I don't think they will risk him. Especially when they have an in form Meek fit and ready. I'd have an action plan for him this week and if he is named then change accordingly.
Which Rookies to Buy
Trent Bianco
Ned Reeves
Joel Amartey
Luke Edwards
Luke Foley
Upgrade Targets This Week
This round is upgrade season and in particular you should be targeting players coming off the round 12 bye. In general with the options available I wouldn't be targeting anyone outside of the round 12 bye purely for the reason that these guys have had their bye and will play for the next two rounds. The only exception is if you've got ruck issues to deal with and therefore need to bring in Gawn or O'Brien etc... These are the guys I'd consider this week.
Lachie Whitfield
111 in his last 3 games. Was supposedly running laps at training away from the main group this week but I couldn't find a source for this information so I'm not sure how legit it is. If it was to be true I still wouldn't look into it too heavily as they could just be giving him a rest and building his fitness base so that he can play more minutes in the second half of the year. Whitfield has a monster ceiling and in my opinion will be the highest scoring defender from this point forward. He's at a buyable price now although there are slight concerns he may see a tag this weekend. Regardless you're getting him for the long haul so I wouldn't let that deter you. He's a must have sooner rather than later so if you can get him this week get on board.
Josh Kelly
Same deal as Whitfield in the sense he's averaged 111 in his last 3. GWS are playing well and the minute and with an almost full strength side now I expect them to make a genuine charge for finals footy. Kelly looks to be back in the guts for good and in this role I expect him to remain the number 1 forward all year. He's not as much value as he once was but he's still a must have and a huge target this week for non-owners.
Aaron Hall
Hall has been a revelation this year. A 5 game average of 125 says it all and despite the fact he is now over $750k he does have dual position and I expect that he could be a top 6 in both these zones. I still think he's worth paying up for if you don't own him as his ceiling his huge and his role looks set in stone.
Patrick Dangerfield
This is a bit of a risky one. He has a huge breakeven of 142 and it is his first game back in 2 months. With 3 tough games in Port, Dogs and Brisbane in his next 3 you'd think that if the Cats are to get up it would be off the back off some big games from this man. After missing so much footy this year he'd be hungry than ever and with Hawkins and Cameron firing up forward I think we'll see a version of Paddy that see's him play predominantly forward. It's risky because we don't know what that mid/fwd split will be and or how many minutes he will play so it's probably wise to wait at least a week but he's close to no ownership and is a must have at some point. I'm not against jumping on straight away and taking a risk if you've got other plans over the coming weeks and won't be able to jump on.
Mitch Duncan
Similar to Danger in the fact that Duncan has a huge break even of 153. He's managed a score of 130+ in 50% of the games he's played this year and is a certainty for a top 8 mid spot. He is very pricey but with very low ownership you could get on to get ahead of the pack albeit at an inflated price. He gives you another genuine captain option also. I probably wouldn't be doing it purely because he's $845k but he is an option for those who want to spend big.
Dan Houston
Value pick of the week for mine. Spoiler alert! I will be bringing Houston in this week. His recent injuries are a slight concern but the week off should have done him wonders and when he's fit he's capable of average 95, potentially closer to 100 if he see's some midfield minutes. He's close enough to a top 6 defender and priced at 80 I think he's a bargain pick.
Ollie Wines
Ollie is one I very nearly started with but I know a decent amount of my OG followers took the plunge and got on board. He's been a super pick so far in what has been his best season to date. 119 in his last 3 and going at 106 for the season it's hard to really see Ollie pushing to further heights this year. He's shown that he doesn't have a super high ceiling and with low TOG I expect his output to stay the same and therefore you are paying full price. I do think based off his very low ownership that he could still be a POD option although he is expensive and no guarantee for a top 8 spot.
Nick Haynes
Very very cheap. Priced at 62 for a bloke who has always been mid 70's and last year pushed an average in the mid to high 80's. GWS look almost back at full strength and with his last two scores of 77 and 78 I expect Haynes to continue along those scoring lines, if not more. He looks to be playing that intercept role in defense again and as a result I think he's exceptional value. Due to his price tag he's easy to get to from a rookie and or you could even use him as a downgrade option from a failed mid price guy in order to upgrade elsewhere. I quite like Haynes as an option.
Jy Simpkin
Has been up and down all year but he's certainly talented and has the right role. With North Melbourne looking to develop players, Simpkin looks the be the future of their midfield and therefore should continue to be placed with great opportunity to score well. He can produce ceiling games highlighted by is 142 a few weeks back and priced at 90, could be one that goes 100+ for the remainder of the year. At the price he's a decent smoky.
Others to Keep an Eye on This Weekend
Matt Rowell
Looks to be making his return this weekend and priced at 75 provides great value. I'd wait this week just to see how much game time he plays and or what his midfield split looks like whether they play him fully inside or a mix of inside and out. If he looks good this weekend he'll be a massive target for lots of coaches next week.
Jack Bowes
Looks set to also return from injury and having averaged 101 in his first 8 games I think he's an option. With a BE of 135, I wouldn't be jumping on this week but he's shown he has a huge ceiling and he could be a great unique option to finish off the year. I'd be watching him closely.
Shaun Higgins
Has been in super form his last couple but with plenty of names coming back into the side I expect Higgins to go back to playing a half forward role. Geelong are notorious for resting players and at 30+ years old Higgins is a prime example of someone that could be rested later in the year. He's also not got the best injury track record. As a result I wouldn't be touching him but I thought he was worth a mention as plenty of others have been throwing his name around.
Tread with Caution
Tom Mitchell
The fantasy pig of recent times has been out of form. When he's on he's on and has a huge ceiling that not many can match. The issue is it looks like Hawks have packed up shop and look to prioritize development in some younger types. We could see Titch's CBA's decrease slightly (potentially) and with news floating around that he may be looking to leave the club there is just a bit of uncertainty around him. He's already highly owned by top ranked coaches so he might be one to avoid for now and monitor how he goes over the next couple of rounds.
Touk Miller
Has been exceptional all year but priced now at 121 I'm highly doubtful he maintains this for the rest of the season. An average closer to 110 is more realistic and therefore at the price I wouldn't be touching him. There are plenty of others priced significantly cheaper who could average the same from here on out in my opinion. Rowell back this week could also negatively impact his scoring. I'd be avoiding Touk despite the low ownership.
Watch List and Future Targets
These are a few names that I wouldn't buy just yet but they look to be good options post bye and or in a couple of weeks. Monitor their price and role going forward.
Christian Petracca
Lachie Neale
Brad Crouch
Christian Salem
Dustin Martin
Scott Pendlebury
Kyle Langford
Lachie Hunter
Shannon Hurn
Elliot Yeo
I hope this weeks insights have helped give you guys a clear path in what you should be looking to do this round. With lots of teams looking to have plenty of numbers this week but limited next, I'd use this week to help clear out some round 14 rookies. If you can move on a RCD, Jordon, Rowe, Warner etc... and get to some of the guys named in the targets section then you are doing great. There may have been some players I have missed so if you want my opinion drop a comment on the video at the top or @ me on twitter. Until next time... Keep climbing up the ranks!
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