Trade Talk and Break Evens: Round 12

With the first round of the byes rolling around paired with some of the injury/selection carnage this week looks to be real interesting. The bye rounds traditionally are where I make my biggest improvements and having never come into the byes in this good of a position (currently ranked 224) I'm hoping to do some damage this year. As per usual I have outlined the guys in which I think present as good options across each line along with some names to monitor as potentially targets in a couple weeks time.


The principles with trading this week should be consistent with what I've preached all year which is you should be looking to go down and up with the aim to field 19-20 players, removing red dots/rookies in the process. Remember to consider the future rounds when trading this week. If you have 21-22 players playing it may be wise to bring in some guys not playing (round 12 bye) to balance out your structure. Traditionally this has been a round where I look to cash up in order to upgrade to some players coming off the bye next week. While you don't have to follow this approach it's one that has worked for me in the past. I'll cover some of these target guys later in the article and will further target in depth next week.


Defenders


Jack Crisp ($742k DEF/MID BE 95)


Has always had elite tendencies as a fantasy scorer in the past but since moving into the midfield Crisp has gone to another level. A 3 game CBA attendance rate of 82% which is accompanied by an average of 108. While he's close to fully priced I think he can maintain a 105-110 average which puts him on the same level as Mills and Laird. He comes in cheaper and he's more unique than both these guys which makes him my pick of the premium defenders if that's what you're looking for.


Bailey Dale ($642k DEF/FWD BE 69)


Great pick for those who got on early. Dale has been fantastic since finding himself a home as a rebounding defender for the dogs. Having increased almost $150k this season he is now getting up in price (Priced at 91) but a 5 game average of 96.4 and a 3 game average of 100.7 would indicate there is still some slight upside. Caleb Daniel will always be the main tag target at the Dogs and having watched Dale closely for a few weeks now, I believe he can be consistent with his scoring from here on out. While I don't think he is top 6 material either forward or back, he is on the out skirts looking in and having that dual position can be super helpful throughout the year and or now during the byes. If you're looking to set yourself apart from the rest of the pack Dale could be a good unique option.


Chris Mayne ($645k DEF/MID BE 46)


Newly appointed defender, Chris Mayne has been a different breed since switching to defence. He's effectively picked up the Jack Ziebell role for the Pies which is seeing him rack up plenty of marks along with taking a fair share of the kick ins. Priced at 91 a 5 game average of 101.4 and a 3 game average of 112.7 indicates there is still value here and similar to Dale could be a great unique option. My only query here is that he does play for the Pies who look to be trialing a bunch of different things. How long will he maintain this role? If he does see a role change it could dramatically effect his scoring but in the short term it looks like a great play in what could be a Ziebell 2.0.


Edit: Mayne has been "rested" this week and therefore isn't an option now.


Nic Newman ($565k DEF BE 74)


Another bloke who has been in the guide for the last few weeks. In this time he's averaged 85 and I expect him to continue to average somewhere between 85-90 from here on. He does have a great draw for defenders which could see his scoring boosted slightly in the short term and he's super unique. Priced at 80 there is upside regardless so I think he's a decent unique option in defence.


Shannon Hurn ($586k DEF BE 108)


Hurn is a real cheeky option. Almost no one owns him and coming back from injury see's him now at a price which presents quite a bit of upside. Started the year with a 3 game average of 108 before getting injured in round 4. The main concern with Hurn is age and injury and during the byes you don't really want to mess around with injury prone players to much. Currently priced at 82 I think you can afford to keep an eye on Hurn and potentially look at him after the bye rounds. He comes with pretty high risk factor but he is the general down back for West Coast, he does take the kick ins and he's in a great team for plenty of plus 6's. West Coast also have a decent amount of games at Optus in the back half of the season which is also a benefit.



Midfielders


Patrick Cripps ($648k MID BE 64)


Been in the trade guide now for the past 3 weeks and if you didn't believe me before you should now. Cripps has since pumped out 3 scores over 100 with a ceiling score of 120 last week. I don't expect Cripps to put up huge numbers but he is a quality player who is easily capable of averaging 100+ from here on out. There is 10 points upside at the current price so it's a pretty easy pick if he fits your bye structure and you're looking for a midfielder. I expect his ownership to increase but for now he is relatively unique also.


Brad Crouch ($684k MID BE 88)


Up and down scores is what you can expect with Crouch but he has a ceiling and with a nice run of games he should continue to score well. He's been in the trade guide the last few weeks and priced at 96 there could still be up to 10 points upside here which is enough to get on board. Super unique and for someone looking to get an edge on the rest of the competition Crouch could be that guy.


Christian Petracca ($743k MID BE 130)


Started the year like a house on fire making his way close to $850k at one point. He currently sits at $743k which is close to a buy price in my opinion. He plays for a top side and while Viney back may see him spend some time forward I don't think it will effect his scoring in a negative way. He's proven he has a ceiling having posted 2 scores over 130 this season and should average close to 110 for the rest of the year. He's certainly on my radar more as a post bye target but if you're looking for round 14 premium types it could pay off to go early on a premium of this caliber and hope to get a leg up on the rest of the competition.


Bailey Smith ($594k MID BE 78)


Someone I was super hot on last week as someone who could increase their output due to a role change. We did see that role change last week where Bailey spent more time in the middle but it wasn't as much as I was expecting (36% CBA's) as the Dogs opted to spread the load through multiple players. While he can probably average 90-95, priced at 84 there's probably not as much upside as I first thought and therefore I'm not as hot as I was last week. In saying that there is still value and if he fits your price range and suits your bye he's still a candidate I'd look to bring in.


Luke Parker ($678k MID BE 105)


Another one I've been keeping an eye on as a potential underpriced option. Currently priced at 96 probably isn't cheap enough to jump on but he is a great unique with some lovely games coming up. He's averaged 109 in the past and over the years has shown he has a ceiling. He's still spending majority of his time in the middle which is what you want to see from a fantasy perspective. I think if you're looking to go out of the box and super unique, Parker isn't a bad shout.


Dion Prestia ($573k MID BE 125)


Starting to get pretty cheap now priced at 81. I probably wouldn't go this week but after his bye he could be a good target if he's all you can afford. Comes with the injury risk but he's proven he can be 95-100 when fit. Richmond are struggling for midfielders and when he's up and going he's the number 1 for them. I'd wait for him to drop more cash this week and potentially look at him in round 14.


Patrick Lipinski ($492k MID BE 68)


You guys might think I'm taking the piss here but I don't think this is the worst look. Lipinski is one of the tough luck stories in the AFL. He has a stack of talent but with such depth at the Dogs has been afforded limited opportunities. At any other club Lipinski is a starting midfielder but with injuries to a few of the starters at the Dogs Lipinski has found himself in the rotation (28% CBA's last week) resulting in a season high score of 95. It's a high risk high reward play. If he's all you can get up to from a dead weight rookie than he's potentially worth the punt. He's probably have to average 85+ to be worth it though.


Forwards


Isaac Heeney ($539k FWD BE 25)


I jumped on 2 weeks ago and bloody oath has he rewarded me. Absolutely huge last week and as a result comes into this round with a 25 BE. Priced at 76 there is still enough upside to get on now and he should see a decent cash rise with his low break even. The only query is his long injury history, the fact he is carrying some minor injuries and that the coach has stated they could look to manage him. Despite all this Heeney will be a super popular target this week for many coaches and if you're looking for a forward in this price range who has the round 14 bye it's hard to say no to this man.


Dustin Martin ($565 MID/FWD BE 73)


Despite the fact he hasn't set the world on fire I still think Dusty is a great target. Good forwards are hard to come by and Dusty is super cheap. Should thrive this week and going into the second half he always performs better. Richmond are starting to get some guys back and like most years will come surging home late which will likely be on the back of this man. Priced at 80 is too cheap so I'd be considering him this week if he suits.


Steele Sidebottom ($679k MID/FWD BE 89)


Looks cheap on paper but I'm not quite sure how cheap he is. It's dependent on role and with the Pies trialing so many new blokes along with playing guys in different positions it's hard to tell what Steele's role will look like for the remainder of the year. In saying that, traditionally he's been able to score well as a forward regardless but if he is to play predominantly forward he's probably priced according to what his output will likely be (96). I still think that he will see time inside and arguably has the best ceiling. If you're looking for a round 14 player I'd have Sidey ahead of Fyfe and Billings in the pecking order.


Michael Walters ($512k MID/FWD BE 72)


Someone I was watching very close last weekend after seeing a role shift two weeks ago. I was worries that with Brayshaw returning Walters would lose his midfield minutes but he still managed to attend 55% of CBA's. The scoring wasn't there but if the role continues I expect the scoring to come. He's one I'm watching closely as he's priced super cheap (72)


Round 12 Targets


If you're set for this week in terms of the byes and you're looking to bring in some round 12 guys to balance your structure these are the guys I'd be looking to target:


Lachie Whitfield

Josh Kelly

Ollie Wines

Dan Houston

Nick Haynes

Cam Guthrie

Mitch Duncan

Touk Miller


I don't usually advocate paying full price (Guthrie/Duncan/Miller) but these guys will be super unique and at this stage of the competition in order to climb up the ranks you need to set yourself apart from the rest of the pack. Due to their high price tags their ownership will be low and therefore if they continue to produce 120+ scores you could be at an advantage owning them. I personally still won't be going down this route of paying this much but I wouldn't say no to others. For the reason of them being more unique I'd probably have these guys ahead of Taranto and Mitchell.


For my thoughts on what to do with Brodie Grundy this week you can check those out here


I hope this has given you a guide as to who you should be looking to target this week. As always this is just a guide and while I've covered who I think are the guys you should be looking to target and or watch for the near future it doesn't mean that you can't go with someone who isn't on this list. The byes can be a challenging time for fantasy coaches and therefore I wish you all the best of luck with your sides this week. I'm personally looking to roll with 19 playing in what should be my weakest round hopefully. I'm also currently looking to trade Grundy with the plan of going Phillips up to him post byes. Once again, good luck and until next time... keep climbing up the ranks!



467 views1 comment

Recent Posts

See All