Trade Talk and Break Evens: Round 11

The last round before the first bye week! Wow that crept up and hopefully if you followed my advice in my bye planning guide you'll be going in prepared. One week out doesn't change the purpose in what you should be looking to achieve with this weeks set of trades. First and foremost, you need to be trading to suit your bye structure. We do get the 3 trades next week but ideally you want to be going into next week ready. We saw last week some injuries to popular premium players (Duncan and Treloar) so it's always better to be prepared than to have to struggle last minute. When trading it's no secret that I'm a huge advocate for searching for value and on top of that the priority needs to be to remove rookies from your field. If you can bring in a value player, benefit your bye structure, remove red dots and remove a rookie from your field that is the ultimate trade play.



Rookies to Target


1) Ryan Byrnes ($337k MID BE -8)


At first I was skeptical on Byrnes as the Saints were changing their side quite often which is usually never a great sign for good job security. Since coming into the side Byrnes has been one of the Saints better players and should continue to hold his spot in the side in that wing role. You are paying up for him but his job security/role/scoring ability are all there and due to those factors should still have enough cash left in him to warrant picking up now.


2) Caleb Poulter ($349k MID/FWD BE -10)


*Insert the comment from above* The only differences here are that Poulter has dual position status but he does also come at a slightly higher price. Depending on your circumstances will determine which guy suits you better and both are good options despite the price tag.


3) Trent Bianco ($170k DEF/MID BE 25)


Highly touted and anticipated debut. Blistering VFL form and should have the ability to score at AFL. Slight concern is having seen what Bucks did with Macrae and Rantall but I feel like things will be different with Bianco. Has had a couple years in the system now and I think the Pies are eager to get some development into him. I'd take the punt first up if you need a basement option to afford the upgrade you're chasing.


4) James Madden ($197k DEF/FWD BE 4)


Looked great last weekend, held his spot and could be one you could ride throughout the byes. Comes in cheap and would have been my priority downgrade target as a cheaper option had Bianco not been named. He's still a great option and if you need a round 13 bye player I'd get on board.


5) Cody Weightman ($295k FWD BE -3)


Has shown scoring ability in his two games posting 2 scores in the mid 70 range. My concern comes with job security and with the Dogs having such depth. It's hard to see him hold his spot long term and may not even hold throughout the byes which is a worry. For this reason I think it's risky paying up $295k for him and I'd rather go with one of the other options mentioned above.



Defence


Jack Crisp ($731k DEF/MID BE 95)


Has played as a midfielder for the last few weeks and as a result has been scoring like one. Has a last 3 game average of 113 and currently comes in priced at 103. Potentially some slight upside here and therefore makes him one of the better defence premium targets if that's what you're looking for.


Luke Ryan ($627k DEF BE 85)


One I've been eager on to return and managed to scrape his way to 90 on the weekend. I don't see him moving in value to much over the next few weeks so he's one that while I think he goes 90+ you can probably afford to target after his bye.


Nic Newman ($557k DEF BE 68)


Looks to have Sam Docherty's old role along with a mortgage on majority of the kick ins. Newman has been a fantasy scorer of the past and with the role he has now I expect him to continue scoring in that 85-90 range. Comes in priced at 78, so there is still enough upside here to warrant jumping on board and he's one of the better defender targets in my opinion.


Zac Williams ($524k DEF/MID BE 75)


You might be thinking, why is this bloke in here? Well... sometimes a bloke just gets to a price where it becomes hard to ignore. Pre-season everyone expected Williams to be 90-100 but after plenty of interruptions along with a lack of fitness base this just hasn't been the case. A role switch back to defence looks to suit him and I think he could potentially be able to put up better numbers off half back than through the middle. Currently priced at 74 he's certainly cheap but he comes with a little bit of risk.


Brayden Maynard ($577k DEF BE 73)


Has shown fantasy ability in the past when utilized as a rebounding defender. It looks like the pies are looking to use Quanor a little bit more defensively and therefore freeing up Maynard. He's probably not one I would jump on this week but he's one to monitor as he's cheap and if he can play a rebounding role could potentially score those high 80's to 90 scores.


Caleb Daniel ($600k DEF BE 71)


As flagged the last few weeks, Daniel is always going to be the target for attention. He got sat on last week at times and still managed to score 88. Has a last 3 game average of 90.7 which is roughly what you can expect for the remainder of the season. Priced at 84 there's still upside here so he's worth chasing if he's one you like.


Jordon Ridley ($586k DEF BE 84)


As flagged last week it looks like Ridley is playing more of a lockdown defence. Hind, Heppell and Redman look to be the main rebounders and whilst he's still getting involved in the switch kicks, his loose ball across half back has dried up along with the fact he is now splitting the kick in duties. I still think long term Ridley will be a top 10 defender which makes him value at the price but he's not a must have like he was made out to be a couple weeks ago.



Midfield


Bailey Smith ($586k MID BE 75)


Last week saw a healthy bump in center bounce attendances after Treloar went down. Attended 63% CBA's and with Dunkley and Treloar now out for extended periods I expect Smith to maintain this going forward. He has a ceiling and he's proven when given the inside role he can be 95-100. Currently priced at 82, he's ripe for the picking and a great target for those looking to trade Treloar or Duncan.


Brad Crouch ($669k MID BE 96)


Put in a poor one last week but that's been the story of his season so far. Crouch doesn't look to have that consistency and therefore he will be a rollercoaster ride for those who choose to jump on. Despite this he does have the ability to score and priced at 94 I think he goes bare minimum 100+ from here. At the price you'd be wanting a 105 average though and the way the Saints are travelling I'm not sure he has the hunger to reach those heights.


Patrick Cripps ($622k MID BE 80)


Another one I mentioned last week as a potential trade in target, Cripps has now gone back to back 100+ and looks to be finding some form. Similar to Crouch Cripps will be a rollercoaster but he's very capable and should be 100+ from here. He's very low ownership and priced at 88 I think he's worth a punt.


Adam Cerra ($576k MID BE 94)


I expected Cerra to play inside midfield last week with the absence of Andy Brayshaw. Although this wasn't the case (Played a wing role all game) he still managed to score 86. I think Cerra has the talent to average mid 90's despite the lack of inside minutes (similar to Walsh the last couple seasons) and could potentially see a boost when he returns back to full fitness. He's priced at 81 so if he can average mid to high 90's he's a steal at the price. Certainly one I'm monitoring closely.


Tom Green ($544k MID BE 33)


Has displayed the form I expected to see at the start of the year. Has a 3 game average of 100.3 as a result of seeing some increased TOG from the start of the year. His price is awkward and the fact that he has the bye next week isn't ideal but he could potentially gain forward status which would be a big plus along with his super low break even generating some cash. Not one I would go but I can't knock those who want to jump on.



Forward


Michael Walters ($509k MID/FWD BE 61)


Walters this season has been underwhelming having been used forward all year. I put this down to the fact he had an interrupted pre-season along with the fact Freo has so much emerging midfield talent. While I expected Walters to play more forward this year I didn't expect him not to play midfield at all. Last week with Brayshaw out, Freo chose to use Walters inside (72% CBA's) in which he was able to put together his best game of the year and help his side get over the line against a quality side. I think Freo will continue to use Walters through the middle in spurts despite Brayshaw destined to return this week and priced at 72 for a guy who's clearly capable of going 90, I think he could be worth a risk.


Lachie Hunter ($629k MID/FWD BE 93)


It feels like we've been waiting forever but it looks like Hunter has finally got that wing role back. With Treloar now out I expect Smith to go inside and Hunter to play wing. Hunter even attended a handful of CBA's for the first time last week which shows me that the dogs are intent on using him more through the middle now. Priced at 88, he's ripe for the picking and will be a highly targeted player this week. He's one of the better trade in options this week and one I suggest jumping on board this week.


Isaac Heeney ($490k FWD BE 56)


Heeney is one of those guys who comes in at a price that is just hard to ignore. I jumped on board last week and actually made $40k by trading Powell to him. He's stuck exclusively in a forward role so it's hard seeing him average around that 90 mark he's put up in future years but he should be good for at least 80. The only big concern is his body but if he suits your bye structure he's a decent target currently priced at 69. I probably wouldn't chase him as your only upgrade unless you're getting someone like Finlay Macrae up to him off the bench.


Dustin Martin ($564k MID/FWD BE 93)


Huge target last week and for the same reasons he makes my list again. Now priced even cheaper (Priced at 79) and with two nice matchups in a row leading into the byes Dusty is a great target. Decent amount of upside (10+ points) and with the likely addition of some experienced heads this week, Dusty should get more support around the contest along with more ball going forward. I'm expecting a couple of 90+ scores the next coming weeks. On the same token he is highly owned so you could choose to avoid him and create a point of difference via not owning him.



Watch List (Potential Bye/Post Bye Upgrades)


Stephen Coniglio

Dion Prestia

Lachie Neale

Taylor Adams

Christian Petracca

Lachie Whitfield

Dan Houston

Travis Boak

Elliot Yeo

Scott Pendlebury (May get forward status)

Nick Haynes (Very cheap)

Patrick Dangerfield


Summary


In summary, if you're looking for a forward or mid I would be going with Hunter. I think his wing role makes him capable of averaging 100 comfortably which makes him my best upgrade target this week. I'm also quite keen on Bailey Smith in the midfield and as a defence option I quite like Newman. Remember, this is just a guide so follow your heart and you will be rewarded. Remember to plan and trade for the future as I can't stress how important it is that you are organized and prepared for the next few rounds as these weeks will define your season. Until next time guys... Keep climbing up the ranks!



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